Will Julie Won be the Democratic nominee for NY-07
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$228K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
497 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?: Antonio Reynoso
KXNY7D-26-AREY
Cluster 2
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?: Claire Valdez
KXNY7D-26-CVAL
Analysis
This 34% probability indicates that prediction market participants currently view Julie Won as the third-most likely candidate to secure the Democratic nomination for New York's 7th congressional district. The market is pricing in Claire Valdez as the frontrunner at 67%, with Antonio Reynoso at 28%. Won's positioning reflects assessments of candidate fundraising, endorsements, polling performance, and organizational capacity relative to her competitors. The probability could shift upward if Won gains major endorsements, demonstrates stronger fundraising, or polling shows improved name recognition or voter preference. Conversely, it could decline if competing candidates consolidate support or if Won faces organizational challenges. The nomination process timeline and any scheduled primary debates or campaign events will likely drive trading activity as more concrete information becomes available.
- ›Relative fundraising totals among the three candidates and whether Won has achieved parity with Valdez or Reynoso
- ›Endorsements from local party figures, union leaders, or other influential Democratic stakeholders in NY-07
- ›Polling data on voter preference and name recognition among Democratic primary voters in the district
- ›Candidate organization metrics including field staff, volunteer capacity, and voter contact operations
- ›Any scheduled primary debates, forums, or campaign events where candidates directly compete for voter attention
What moved the line
- Jun 24Claire Valdez↑10pp79→89¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Antonio Reynoso↓4pp20→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Antonio Reynoso↓3pp23→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Claire Valdez↑3pp79→82¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 0d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 0d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 0d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 0d
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (49% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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Democrats Priced at 78¢ to Win House in 2026, Heavy Primary Action
Democratic control of the House is priced at 78¢ (vs 21¢ Republican), with heavy primary volume in New York congressional races. The New York-10 Democratic primary is a standout, with Brad Lander at 98¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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