Will JPMorgan Chase serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
470 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Citigroup serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO
Will Citigroup serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO?: Citigroup
KXOPENAILEADLEFT-28JAN01B-CITIX
Cluster 2
Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO
Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO?: Goldman Sachs
KXOPENAILEADLEFT-28JAN01B-GSX
Cluster 3
Will Morgan Stanley serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO
Will Morgan Stanley serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO?: Morgan Stanley
KXOPENAILEADLEFT-28JAN01B-MSX
Analysis
This contract estimates a 24% probability that JPMorgan Chase will be selected as the lead-left underwriter for OpenAI's initial public offering. The lead-left underwriter role is a prestigious position in IPO syndicates, typically awarded to one of the major investment banks based on relationships, track record, and negotiated terms. JPMorgan's probability reflects its status as a top-tier bank, though it trails Goldman Sachs (66¢) significantly in market expectations. The gap between JPMorgan and Goldman likely reflects Goldman's historical dominance in tech IPOs and any reported preferences OpenAI may have signaled. Resolution depends on OpenAI's formal IPO filing and syndicate announcement, which typically occurs when the company officially registers with the SEC. Trading volume on JPMorgan's contract ($418 in 24 hours) suggests moderate market interest relative to the Goldman contract's lower volume, possibly indicating lower confidence in JPMorgan's chances among active traders.
- ›Goldman Sachs is priced at 66¢, commanding a substantial 42-percentage-point lead over JPMorgan, indicating market consensus favors Goldman for lead-left role
- ›JPMorgan's 24¢ price sits between Morgan Stanley (20¢) and Citigroup (4¢), positioning it as the second-most-likely among remaining banks
- ›No publicly announced OpenAI IPO filing or syndicate commitment has been disclosed, meaning resolution depends on a future formal announcement from OpenAI or its underwriters
- ›JPMorgan's historical relationships with OpenAI (financing, advisory roles) versus Goldman's track record in similar tech-sector IPOs will influence the actual selection
- ›The contract's $418 daily volume on JPMorgan versus $65 on Goldman suggests fewer traders are actively hedging JPMorgan's outcome, potentially indicating lower conviction in the alternatives
What moved the line
- Sep 12Goldman Sachs↓27pp79→52¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Morgan Stanley↓3pp18→15¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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