Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 900 in May 2026
Leader sits at 92% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 900
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Above 950
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
18 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above
Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 1000 in June 2026?: Above 1,000
KXPANAMATRAFFIC-26JUL01-A1000
Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 950 in June 2026?: Above 950
KXPANAMATRAFFIC-26JUL01-A950
Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 900 in June 2026?: Above 900
KXPANAMATRAFFIC-26JUL01-A900
Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 1100 in June 2026?: Above 1,100
KXPANAMATRAFFIC-26JUL01-A1100
Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 1050 in June 2026?: Above 1,050
KXPANAMATRAFFIC-26JUL01-A1050
Analysis
This market is assessing whether Panama Canal transits will exceed 900 vessels in June 2026, with traders pricing an approximately 92% likelihood of this outcome. The canal's transit volume depends primarily on global shipping demand, which correlates with international trade activity and economic conditions. Secondary factors include canal capacity constraints, weather disruptions, and any operational changes. The probability will resolve with certainty once June transit data is published by the Panama Canal Authority, typically in early July. Currently, traders are pricing in confidence that shipping activity will remain robust enough to sustain over 900 monthly transits, though the sharply lower odds for thresholds above 1,000 transits (5%) suggest expectations of moderate but not exceptional volume.
- ›Historical June transit volumes: the canal averaged approximately 935-960 oceangoing transits monthly in 2024-2025, providing a baseline reference point
- ›Global shipping indices and container volumes: Baltic Dry Index, Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, and reported shipper demand in Q2 2026 will indicate trade momentum heading into June
- ›Panama Canal Authority operational capacity and any announced schedule changes, maintenance windows, or water level constraints affecting daily transit slots
- ›Geopolitical trade flows: tariff policies, US-China trade conditions, and Suez Canal conditions (which affect rerouting decisions) influence which vessels choose the Panama route
- ›Actual May 2026 transit data: the preceding month's results become the strongest predictor for June outcomes, acting as the primary resolution indicator
What moved the line
- Jun 15Above 1,000↑40pp39→79¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Above 1,050↑23pp28→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Above 1,100↑9pp17→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 1,000↓6pp80→74¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Above 950↑5pp85→90¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 2d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 3d
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 64% · 3d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 3d
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikeslast 97% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.