Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City
Leader sits at 24% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Paul McCartney
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Elton John
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 30, 2026
97 days
Venue
Kalshi
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Stevie Nicks
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-STE
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Mick Fleetwood
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-MIC
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Elton John
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-ELT
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Paul McCartney
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-PAU
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Bad Bunny
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-BAD
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Noah Kahan
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-NOA
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Phoebe Bridgers
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-PHO
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Lorde
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-LOR
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Billie Eilish
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-BIL
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Charli XCX
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-CHA
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Olivia Rodrigo
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-OLI
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Taylor Swift
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-TAY
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Jorja Smith
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-JOR
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Zayn Malik
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-ZAY
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Louis Tomlinson
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-LOU
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Niall Horan
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-NIA
Analysis
This contracts market estimates a 22% probability that Paul McCartney will perform at Harry Styles' upcoming 30-night Madison Square Garden residency. The relatively modest odds reflect uncertainty about guest performer selections for the residency, which remains largely unannounced. McCartney's probability is likely elevated by his iconic status, history of MSG performances, and past collaborations or appearances at major music events, though Styles has not publicly confirmed any guest performers. The primary driver moving this probability would be official announcements from Styles' team or MSG about the residency's guest lineup. Resolution will occur as the residency approaches and artists are announced, either through social media, press releases, or the official ticket/event promotion materials. Market pricing activity ($32 in 24-hour volume on the McCartney contract) suggests some traders are monitoring new information closely.
- ›Harry Styles has not publicly announced specific guest performers for the 30-night MSG residency as of June 2026
- ›Paul McCartney's 22% probability is the highest among all listed candidates, with the next closest option (Elton John) at 13%, indicating market fragmentation across multiple possibilities
- ›Official announcement of the residency's guest lineup represents the primary catalyst that would sharply resolve this contract toward either 0% or 100%
- ›McCartney has a historical pattern of high-profile NYC performances and collaborations, though no public connection to this specific residency has been reported
- ›The contract shows $32 in 24-hour trading volume concentrated on McCartney, suggesting active trader interest despite most other options registering zero recent volume
What moved the line
- Aug 18Paul McCartney↓8pp22→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Elton John↓5pp16→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Jorja Smith↓4pp9→5¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Olivia Rodrigo↓4pp9→5¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Paul McCartney↑4pp14→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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