Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City
Leader sits at 16% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Elton John
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Paul McCartney
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$870
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 30, 2026
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Lorde
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-LOR
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Zayn Malik
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-ZAY
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Bad Bunny
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-BAD
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Noah Kahan
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-NOA
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Mick Fleetwood
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-MIC
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Olivia Rodrigo
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-OLI
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Jorja Smith
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-JOR
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Charli XCX
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-CHA
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Stevie Nicks
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-STE
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Taylor Swift
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-TAY
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Phoebe Bridgers
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-PHO
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Paul McCartney
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-PAU
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Niall Horan
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-NIA
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Louis Tomlinson
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-LOU
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Elton John
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-ELT
Who will perform at Harry Styles 30-night residency at Madison Square Garden (MSG) in New York City?: Billie Eilish
KXPERFORMSTYLESMSG-26-BIL
What moved the line
- May 20Lorde↑8pp10→18¢ · Kalshi
- May 20Elton John↑8pp12→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 20Stevie Nicks↑7pp10→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 20Paul McCartney↑7pp10→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Elton John↓6pp20→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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