Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
4%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
1 contracts
Top contract
4¢
$5K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
0x269b4d…75a8
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Pete Hegseth, the current Secretary of Defense, will be removed from office before June 30, 2026—roughly two weeks from now. The low 4% probability suggests market participants view his departure as unlikely in this timeframe. The level reflects Hegseth's relative stability in his position combined with the short remaining duration. Significant movement would likely depend on major scandals, legal developments, health crises, or explicit statements from President Trump indicating his removal. Since the contract resolves in mid-June, the primary catalyst would be any breaking news or formal announcements during this narrow window. Without specific imminent threats to his tenure, the market maintains a baseline probability accounting for unexpected events.
- ›Hegseth holds the office as of mid-June 2026 with no publicly reported resignation plans or removal proceedings
- ›The 13-day window to resolution limits time for political developments that could trigger his departure
- ›Historical precedent shows Cabinet removals typically follow public controversy, legal action, or explicit presidential direction
- ›Market volume is relatively modest at ~$18k in 24-hour trading, suggesting limited deep conviction on either side
- ›Any reversal would require either unprecedented urgency in removal proceedings or a sudden major incident becoming public knowledge
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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