Portland Thorns FC vs. San Diego Wave FC
Leader sits at 23% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
85+ wins
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
90+ wins
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 31, 2028
858 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will San Diego win at least
Analysis
The 19% probability reflects the likelihood that San Diego wins at least 85 games in the 2026 season, based on three linked contracts with minimal recent trading activity. This threshold sits between typical regular season win totals for mid-tier playoff contenders and rebuilding teams. The probability is primarily driven by San Diego's current roster composition and injury status, with upward pressure if the team performs better than preseason expectations and downward pressure if early-season results fall short. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be performance through the first 50-60 games of the season, which typically establishes a team's competitive trajectory and win-pace trajectory. Secondary contracts priced at 20¢ (85+ wins) and 7¢ (90+ wins) suggest the market distinguishes between different win thresholds but assigns notably lower confidence to sustained excellence.
- ›San Diego's projected win total based on preseason power ratings and roster evaluation relative to the 85-game threshold
- ›Early season win-loss record through June-July 2026, which determines whether the team is tracking toward or away from 85 wins at the current pace
- ›Health and performance of key position players, particularly starting rotation and primary offensive contributors
- ›Direct competition within the NL West; divisional race dynamics affect playoff positioning and late-season urgency that influences final win total
- ›The 20¢ contract price for 85+ wins versus the 19% headline price suggests significant uncertainty between win-total tiers
What moved the line
- Jun 1890+ wins↓7pp14→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1885+ wins↓7pp27→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2485+ wins↑4pp24→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2585+ wins↑3pp28→31¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (23% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.