Portland Thorns FC vs. San Diego Wave FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 16% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
85+ wins
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
90+ wins
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$7
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 31, 2028
831 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will San Diego win at least
Analysis
This 19% probability reflects the likelihood that San Diego wins at least 85 games in the 2026 MLB season. The significant 20-percentage-point gap between prediction markets suggests disagreement about San Diego's roster strength and competitive positioning. Key drivers include the team's recent offseason moves, injury status of core players, and early-season performance trends. The main uncertainty will resolve through the regular season as actual win-loss records accumulate; by mid-September, the market would converge toward certainty based on whether San Diego is tracking toward 85 wins. Current pricing reflects mixed assessments of the Padres' 2026 competitiveness relative to NL West rivals.
- ›San Diego's opening-day roster composition and payroll allocation versus division competitors like the Dodgers and Giants
- ›Kalshi showing 57¢ on 85+ wins suggests internal market confidence significantly higher than the 19% aggregate, indicating possible liquidity or timing differences
- ›Early 2026 season win-loss record through May and June will provide concrete data to either confirm or invalidate the 85-win projection
- ›Injury status of San Diego's key position players and starting pitchers, which directly impacts win probability over a 162-game season
- ›The 20-percentage-point venue gap indicates fundamental disagreement on assessment methodology or contract design between Kalshi and Polymarket
What moved the line
- Aug 285+ wins↑6pp31→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 3085+ wins↓5pp30→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 3185+ wins↑4pp25→29¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 385+ wins↑4pp37→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 3090+ wins↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (16% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.