Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election
Leader sits at 62% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Bola Tinubu
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Peter Obi
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 28, 2028
568 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election
Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election?: Atiku Abubakar
KXPRESNIGERIA-27-AABU
Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election?: Peter Obi
KXPRESNIGERIA-27-POBI
Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election?: Bola Tinubu
KXPRESNIGERIA-27-BTIN
Analysis
The 57% probability reflects market expectations that incumbent President Bola Tinubu will win Nigeria's next presidential election, scheduled for 2027. The current assessment is shaped by Tinubu's incumbency advantage and control of federal machinery, offset against economic challenges including inflation and naira volatility that have eroded public satisfaction since his 2023 election. The primary uncertainty revolves around whether opposition parties can consolidate voter discontent, particularly whether Peter Obi's 31% probability reflects genuine electoral threat or market skepticism of opposition unity. The election campaign dynamics, voter registration figures, and poll trends in the 12 months preceding the 2027 vote will likely shift probabilities substantially. Key catalysts include major policy announcements affecting inflation or infrastructure delivery, significant defections between parties, and opinion polls showing shifts in regional support patterns.
- ›Tinubu's incumbency and control of election administration typically provide structural advantages, but high inflation (40%+ year-on-year) and currency depreciation have driven public dissatisfaction measurably
- ›Peter Obi's 31% probability depends on whether opposition parties formally align or splinter; fragmented opposition would increase Tinubu's win probability, unified opposition would decrease it
- ›Opinion polling data from 2026-2027 and voter registration statistics will provide concrete signals of campaign momentum beyond market prices
- ›Regional voting patterns—particularly whether Tinubu retains core support in southwest states and gains enough votes in north or southeast—directly determine electoral outcomes
- ›Major economic data releases (inflation reports, unemployment figures, infrastructure project completions) between now and the 2027 election will influence public perception and market pricing
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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