2026 Pro Football Draft: 2nd Overall Pick
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$13K
5 contracts
Closes
May 15, 2027
324 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Which Pro Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026” vs “Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which Pro Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026
Which Pro Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?: Mike Vrabel
KXCOACHOUTNFL-26SEP01-MVRA
Cluster 2
Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: New York J
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-NYJ
Cluster 3
Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Arizona
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-ARI
Cluster 4
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Miami
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-MIA
Cluster 5
Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Cleveland
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-CLE
Analysis
The 15% probability reflects the market's assessment that a specific team will select second overall in the 2026 Pro Football Draft. This estimate is derived from limited trading volume across four Kalshi contracts, primarily tracking 2027 draft positioning and current coaching changes. The main drivers of this probability are team win-loss records through the 2025 NFL season, which determine draft order, and potential coaching changes that could signal organizational instability or tank intentions. The draft order becomes official after the 2025 regular season concludes in early January 2026, and the draft itself occurs in late April 2026, making these the key resolution events. Until then, the probability depends on how teams perform and whether front office changes indicate strategic positioning for next year's selections.
- ›Final 2025 NFL regular season standings determine draft order, with the 2nd pick assigned to the team with the worst record that doesn't hold the 1st overall selection
- ›Current coaching uncertainty (Vrabel contract at 8¢) suggests organizational turnover that could affect team performance and draft positioning in the final weeks of 2025
- ›Related 2027 draft contracts show Arizona at 19¢, Jets at 15¢, and Miami at 18¢ for 1st overall, indicating market expectations about which teams will tank or struggle
- ›The 2026 draft occurs in late April, after which this contract resolves; all relevant information (final standings, trades affecting draft picks) becomes public by early January 2026
- ›Trading volume remains thin across all related contracts ($12-$1,392 in 24h volume), suggesting low liquidity and potential for probability swings with modest new information
What moved the line
- Jun 24New York J↑21pp6→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Miami↑19pp4→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Cleveland↑10pp5→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Miami↓8pp12→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Arizona↑4pp15→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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