Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
9%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$33K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
208 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
0x6bd566…0d0d
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated likelihood that Vladimir Putin will no longer serve as President of Russia by year-end 2026—roughly seven months away. At 12%, the market reflects extremely low expectations for regime change, suggesting traders view Putin's political position as highly stable over this timeframe. The baseline is shaped by Russia's institutional continuity and Putin's consolidated control, though the probability could shift significantly based on developments in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, any sudden health concerns, or unexpected domestic political fractures. The most concrete resolution point is whether major geopolitical or internal developments occur that destabilize Putin's authority before the year ends. Currently, prediction markets price such scenarios as tail risks rather than base-case outcomes.
- ›Russia's current military engagement in Ukraine continues without indication of regime collapse, suggesting institutional stability remains high through 2026
- ›Comparison markets show similar low probabilities for other major leader exits (Zelenskyy 16%, Erdoğan 11%), indicating general market skepticism about rapid leadership transitions
- ›A 12-cent price implies traders assign meaningful probability to unexpected events, but within a narrow cone that strongly favors continuity
- ›No scheduled elections, mandatory transitions, or known succession mechanisms in Russia's political system create natural near-term opportunities for leadership change
- ›Trading volume ($24k+ in 24 hours) shows modest but consistent interest, suggesting the contract is priced by a functioning market rather than illiquid speculation
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (9% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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