Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13800 total car shipments in 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets are assigning a 94% probability that Ferrari will deliver more than 13,800 cars in 2026, based on aggregated derivatives pricing. This reflects confidence in Ferrari's ability to meet or exceed this shipment threshold in the coming year. The probability is driven primarily by Ferrari's recent production trajectory and announced capacity plans, balanced against supply-chain risks and potential demand softening in luxury vehicle markets. The resolution hinges on Ferrari's official 2026 shipment report, typically disclosed in early 2027 as part of annual financial results. Uncertainty could shift substantially if the company provides revised production guidance or if broader automotive demand signals deteriorate meaningfully before year-end.

• ›Ferrari's 2025 production run and stated capacity targets for 2026 will anchor baseline expectations for annual shipment volume
• ›Luxury vehicle demand in key markets (Europe, Asia, North America) through Q4 2026 will determine whether Ferrari can sustain or accelerate delivery rates
• ›Supply-chain stability for specialized components and materials will constrain upside production capacity if disruptions occur
• ›The wider price curve shows 90% probability for >13,200 units but only 13% for >13,900, indicating tight consensus around 13,500–13,800 shipments
• ›Quarterly delivery reports or production updates released before year-end 2026 could significantly shift market expectations if actual pace diverges from current trajectory

What moved the line

• Jun 24Above 14000↑32pp7→39¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Above 13800↑9pp14→23¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Above 13400↑9pp72→81¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Above 13500↑6pp57→63¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Above 13700↑3pp26→29¢ · Kalshi

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How we compute these odds