Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13800 total car shipments in 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 13000
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Above 13200
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 31, 2028
583 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 1
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13000 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13000
KXRACEA-28JANSHIP-13000
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 14200 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 14200
KXRACEA-28JANSHIP-14200
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 14000 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 14000
KXRACEA-28JANSHIP-14000
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13900 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13900
KXRACEA-28JANSHIP-13900
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13800 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13800
KXRACEA-28JANSHIP-13800
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13700 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13700
KXRACEA-28JANSHIP-13700
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13600 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13600
KXRACEA-28JANSHIP-13600
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13500 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13500
KXRACEA-28JANSHIP-13500
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13400 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13400
KXRACEA-28JANSHIP-13400
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13300 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13300
KXRACEA-28JANSHIP-13300
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13200 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13200
KXRACEA-28JANSHIP-13200
Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13100 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13100
KXRACEA-28JANSHIP-13100
Analysis
Markets are assigning a 94% probability that Ferrari will deliver more than 13,800 cars in 2026, based on aggregated derivatives pricing. This reflects confidence in Ferrari's ability to meet or exceed this shipment threshold in the coming year. The probability is driven primarily by Ferrari's recent production trajectory and announced capacity plans, balanced against supply-chain risks and potential demand softening in luxury vehicle markets. The resolution hinges on Ferrari's official 2026 shipment report, typically disclosed in early 2027 as part of annual financial results. Uncertainty could shift substantially if the company provides revised production guidance or if broader automotive demand signals deteriorate meaningfully before year-end.
- ›Ferrari's 2025 production run and stated capacity targets for 2026 will anchor baseline expectations for annual shipment volume
- ›Luxury vehicle demand in key markets (Europe, Asia, North America) through Q4 2026 will determine whether Ferrari can sustain or accelerate delivery rates
- ›Supply-chain stability for specialized components and materials will constrain upside production capacity if disruptions occur
- ›The wider price curve shows 90% probability for >13,200 units but only 13% for >13,900, indicating tight consensus around 13,500–13,800 shipments
- ›Quarterly delivery reports or production updates released before year-end 2026 could significantly shift market expectations if actual pace diverges from current trajectory
What moved the line
- Aug 23Above 13000↑17pp77→94¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above 13100↑17pp76→93¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 13000↓16pp93→77¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 13100↓16pp92→76¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 13600↓5pp67→62¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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