SimpleFunctions
11 source contracts·Kalshi 11·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2026 · 148d

Will Steve Aoki be in the Top 10 on DJ Mag Top 100 DJ's

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 63% across 11 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

63%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

63%

11 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$0

11 contracts

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

148 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 69% (2 days, 2 points)Aggregate: 69% on 2026-07-28
Aggregate of 11 contracts · 2d

Bracket families

11 clusters across 11 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Afrojack be in the Top 10 on DJ Mag Top 100 DJ's

1 contract$0

Cluster 2

Will Alok be in the Top 10 on DJ Mag Top 100 DJ's

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will Anyma be in the Top 10 on DJ Mag Top 100 DJ's

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Armin Van Buuren be in the Top 10 on DJ Mag Top 100 DJ's

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Black Coffee be in the Top 10 on DJ Mag Top 100 DJ's

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Calvin Harris be in the Top 10 on DJ Mag Top 100 DJ's

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Charlotte de Witte be in the Top 10 on DJ Mag Top 100 DJ's

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will David Guetta be in the Top 10 on DJ Mag Top 100 DJ's

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Dimitri Vegas & Like Mike be in the Top 10 on DJ Mag Top 100 DJ's

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Don Diablo be in the Top 10 on DJ Mag Top 100 DJ's

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will FISHER be in the Top 10 on DJ Mag Top 100 DJ's

1 contract$0

Analysis

This represents a 63% probability that Steve Aoki will place in the top 10 of DJ Mag's annual Top 100 DJs ranking. The current level reflects Aoki's established popularity and touring presence against uncertainty about voting patterns and competition from other prominent DJs. His ranking depends primarily on voting metrics from DJ Mag readers and industry voters, which shift year-to-year based on artist visibility, releases, and event participation. The main catalyst is the publication of DJ Mag's Top 100 ranking, typically released in late fall, which will definitively settle whether Aoki achieves top-10 status. Historical rankings show volatility in mid-tier positions, suggesting meaningful uncertainty even for established artists.

  • Steve Aoki's chart position in DJ Mag's previous 3-5 annual rankings provides baseline data on stability or volatility of his standing
  • Comparative positioning of similar artists on current Kalshi contracts (Afrojack at 60%, Anyma at 78%) indicates relative market assessment of Aoki's competitiveness
  • DJ Mag voting methodology weights reader votes and industry input, which can shift based on media coverage and release activity during the voting period
  • The binary nature of top-10 placement means small ranking changes (11th vs 10th) create significant probability swings despite similar competitive position
  • DJ Mag Top 100 rankings are typically published in late September/October, representing the primary event that resolves this contract

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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