Will Arizona have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$442
4 contracts
Closes
Feb 22, 2027
289 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Miami have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season
Will Miami have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Miami
KXRECORDNFLWORST-27-MIA
Cluster 2
Will Arizona have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season
Will Arizona have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Arizona
KXRECORDNFLWORST-27-ARI
Cluster 3
Will Las Vegas have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season
Will Las Vegas have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Las Vegas
KXRECORDNFLWORST-27-LV
Cluster 4
Will Cleveland have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season
Will Cleveland have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Cleveland
KXRECORDNFLWORST-27-CLE
Analysis
This market estimates a 14% chance that Arizona finishes the 2026-27 baseball season with the worst record in the league. The probability reflects expectations about Arizona's roster strength, management decisions, and competitive positioning relative to other potentially weak teams. Key drivers include whether Arizona actively rebuilds or attempts competitiveness, how their drafted prospects develop, and injuries to core players. The 2026-27 season will run from late March through September 2027, with the final standings determined after all regular season games conclude. Arizona's actual performance will depend on offseason acquisitions, player health, and how their pitching staff performs relative to other struggling teams in the league. Comparative probabilities show St. Louis and New York M currently face lower odds of worst-record finishes, suggesting Arizona is viewed as moderately vulnerable but not the consensus weakest team.
- ›Arizona's offseason roster moves and payroll commitments relative to rebuilding teams
- ›Injury status of Arizona's key position players and starting pitchers heading into spring training 2027
- ›Performance trajectory of Arizona's minor league prospects and whether they're ready for MLB contributions
- ›Quality of Arizona's managerial and front office decision-making compared to other potentially weak franchises
- ›Trade activity at the 2026 deadline—whether Arizona sells veterans or attempts mid-season competitiveness
What moved the line
- May 6Arizona↑4pp16→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Miami↓3pp25→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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