Will Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$34
5 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
829 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will JD Vance” vs “Will Marco Rubio”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will JD Vance
Will JD Vance and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: JD Vance and Marco Rubio
KXRTICKET-28NOV07-JVANMRUB
Will JD Vance and Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: JD Vance and Sarah Huckabee Sanders
KXRTICKET-28NOV07-JVANSSAN
Cluster 2
Will Marco Rubio
Will Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin
KXRTICKET-28NOV07-MRUBGYOU
Will Marco Rubio and JD Vance be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: Marco Rubio and JD Vance
KXRTICKET-28NOV07-MRUBJVAN
Cluster 3
Will Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds will run together as the Republican presidential and vice-presidential nominees in 2028. The 5% estimate reflects several structural challenges: Rubio currently serves as Secretary of State, which typically limits presidential ambitions, and separate contract markets show only 23% odds he becomes the presidential nominee at all. The pairing faces additional difficulty since Donalds, a U.S. Representative from Florida, would need to establish significantly higher national profile. The main factors affecting this probability are Rubio's political trajectory over the next 18 months—whether he remains in the cabinet, leaves early, or pivots toward electoral politics—and whether Republican primary dynamics favor a ticket with two Florida-based candidates. The 2028 Republican National Convention in summer 2028 will ultimately resolve this question, though the nomination outcome will be determined through primary elections and delegate selection processes beginning in early 2028.
- ›Rubio's current role as Secretary of State and whether he departs the cabinet before the 2028 cycle, as current markets price only 19% probability he leaves before 2027
- ›Separate markets show only 23% odds Rubio becomes Republican presidential nominee, suggesting the baseline probability of any specific VP pairing is constrained
- ›Byron Donalds has not yet been nominated for Florida governor per available markets (86% odds), making a vice-presidential nomination less likely without higher state-level credential
- ›Two nominees from the same state would be historically unusual for a major party ticket, creating structural disadvantage
- ›The Republican primary process beginning early 2028 will determine the nominee and their running mate selection
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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