San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 31, 2028
813 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will San Diego win at least” vs “Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will San Diego win at least
Cluster 2
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego
KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-SD
Analysis
This 17% probability reflects market expectations that San Diego FC will defeat Portland Timbers in an upcoming match. The low probability suggests bettors favor Portland or expect a draw. The assessment likely reflects San Diego's recent performance record, current team composition, and head-to-head dynamics against Portland. Key factors include home-field advantage, injury status of key players, recent form in the league standings, and Portland's defensive capabilities. The match outcome will be determined on the scheduled game date, providing immediate resolution. Market participants are weighting historical win rates and current season statistics heavily, given the limited volume on these contracts suggests relatively few traders are positioned on this outcome. The probability could shift significantly if major roster changes or injury updates occur before kickoff.
- ›San Diego's current win-loss record and goals-for/against differential compared to Portland's defensive statistics this season
- ›Home or away designation for the match, as MLS teams typically show measurable performance variance based on venue
- ›Injury or suspension status of starting players for either team, particularly offensive playmakers or defensive anchors
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between San Diego FC and Portland Timbers in recent matchups
- ›Current league table position and playoff qualification trajectory for both teams as of the match date
What moved the line
- Aug 285+ wins↑6pp31→37¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3San Diego↑4pp37→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5San Diego↑4pp40→44¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6San Diego↓4pp44→40¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 385+ wins↑4pp37→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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