San Diego Wave FC vs. Bay FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 41%, Polymarket at 9% — a 32pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
18 contracts
Polymarket
9%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
32pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$220K
19 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 41¢ · Polymarket 9¢ · 32pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (9¢, 1 contract) and sell on Kalshi (41¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “San Francisco vs Tampa Bay” vs “Will San Diego”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
San Francisco vs Tampa Bay
San Francisco vs Tampa Bay Winner?: Tampa Bay
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031340SFTB-TB
San Francisco vs Tampa Bay Winner?: San Francisco
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031340SFTB-SF
San Francisco vs Tampa Bay Total Runs?: Over 8.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031340SFTB-9
San Francisco vs Tampa Bay First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031340SFTB
San Francisco vs Tampa Bay Total Runs?: Over 6.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031340SFTB-7
Cluster 2
Will San Diego
Will San Diego be the 2026 NL West Division Winner: San Diego
KXMLBNLWEST-26-SD
Will San Diego win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship?: San Diego
KXMLBNL-26-SD
Will San Diego win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins
KXMLBWINS-SD-26-T85
Will San Diego win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins
KXMLBWINS-SD-26-T90
Cluster 3
Chicago WS vs San Diego
Cluster 4
San Diego Wave FC vs Bay FC Winner
Cluster 5
San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs
San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs?: San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031610CWSSD-SD2
Cluster 6
San Diego vs San Francisco Winner
San Diego vs San Francisco Winner?: San Diego
KXMLBGAME-26MAY042145SDSF-SD
Cluster 7
Will Robelis Despaigne win the Junior Dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne UFC fight in Round 1: Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1
Cluster 8
MLB: 2026 NL West Champion : San Diego Padres
MLB: 2026 NL West Champion : San Diego Padres
0x90803d…aa8b
What moved the line
- May 3San Diego Wave FC↑52pp14→66¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1↓21pp42→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Tampa Bay↑20pp28→48¢ · Kalshi
- May 1San Diego↑15pp44→59¢ · Kalshi
- May 3San Diego↑12pp34→46¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.