San Diego Wave FC vs. Bay FC
Leader sits at 16% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
85+ wins
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
90+ wins
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$7
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 31, 2028
831 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will San Diego win at least
Analysis
This 18% probability reflects market expectations that the San Diego Padres will win the 2026 National League West division title. The forecast is driven primarily by the Padres' roster composition, payroll constraints, and historical division competitiveness, with the Bay FC (Giants/Athletics region) emerging as a potential challenger. The main uncertainty stems from spring performance metrics and early-season record through May-June, which typically correlates with full-season outcomes. The largest catalyst will be the Padres' win-loss record by the All-Star break in early July; a record above .500 would substantially increase championship probability, while significant injuries to core players or a sub-.500 start would pressure the estimate downward. Division rival performance—particularly the Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies—also meaningfully affects relative odds.
- ›Padres' current win-loss record and run differential compared to other NL West teams as of late May 2026
- ›Injury status of San Diego's key position players and pitchers, especially any players on injured list longer than 2-3 weeks
- ›Historical franchise payroll ranking within the division and player acquisitions made during 2025-2026 offseason
- ›Bay FC's actual roster construction and winning percentage through early June 2026
- ›Remaining strength-of-schedule for San Diego versus divisional rivals through the remainder of the season
What moved the line
- Aug 285+ wins↑6pp31→37¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 385+ wins↑4pp37→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 590+ wins↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 685+ wins↓3pp44→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (16% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.