Will Sea Ltd report above 60 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 62 million
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Above 60 million
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 10, 2026
74 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Sea Ltd report above
Will Sea Ltd report above 60 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 60 million
KXSE-26AUGQPU-P60000000
Will Sea Ltd report above 74 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 74 million
KXSE-26AUGQPU-P74000000
Will Sea Ltd report above 72 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 72 million
KXSE-26AUGQPU-P72000000
Will Sea Ltd report above 70 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 70 million
KXSE-26AUGQPU-P70000000
Will Sea Ltd report Above 69 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 69 million
KXSE-26AUGQPU-69000000
Will Sea Ltd report above 68 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 68 million
KXSE-26AUGQPU-P68000000
Will Sea Ltd report above 66 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 66 million
KXSE-26AUGQPU-P66000000
Will Sea Ltd report above 64 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 64 million
KXSE-26AUGQPU-P64000000
Will Sea Ltd report above 62 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 62 million
KXSE-26AUGQPU-P62000000
Analysis
This market is assessing whether Sea Ltd's Garena platform will report above 62 million quarterly paying users in Q2 2026, with an estimated 96% likelihood. The high probability reflects market confidence in Garena's user base trajectory based on historical growth patterns and recent performance data. The main drivers are Garena's track record of consistent user growth across its gaming portfolio and regional market expansion, weighed against potential headwinds like competitive pressure from other platforms and macroeconomic factors affecting user spending. Resolution depends on Sea Ltd's official Q2 2026 earnings report, expected in August 2026, which will disclose the exact paying user count. The probability structure across multiple thresholds (60M, 62M, 64M, 66M, 69M) suggests market participants see a high floor around 62M but decreasing confidence at higher tiers, reflecting uncertainty about the magnitude of growth beyond base expectations.
- ›Sea Ltd's historical quarterly paying user growth rate and trend trajectory from prior periods
- ›Competitive dynamics in mobile gaming and live-streaming across Southeast Asia and emerging markets where Garena operates
- ›The earnings release date and exact paying user count disclosure in Sea Ltd's Q2 2026 financial statements
- ›Macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer spending on gaming and virtual goods in key regions during Q1-Q2 2026
- ›The gap between the 62M (96%) and 69M (70%) thresholds indicates significant uncertainty about whether growth accelerates beyond historical norms
What moved the line
- Jun 21Above 68 million↓3pp84→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Above 72 million↓3pp23→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Above 74 million↓3pp16→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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