St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$804
2 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
197 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 15% of their title tokens — “Will San Jose win the MLS Western Conference” vs “Will St. Louis be the 2026 NL Central Division Winner: St. Louis”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will San Jose win the MLS Western Conference
Will San Jose win the MLS Western Conference?: San Jose
KXMLSWEST-26-SJ
Cluster 2
Will St. Louis be the 2026 NL Central Division Winner: St. Louis
Will St. Louis be the 2026 NL Central Division Winner: St. Louis
KXMLBNLCENT-26-STL
Analysis
This 9% probability represents the aggregate market expectation that San Jose Earthquakes will defeat St. Louis City SC in an upcoming match. The low probability reflects San Jose's recent performance relative to St. Louis, along with any relevant head-to-head history or current standings. Market participants are pricing in St. Louis as the favored outcome. The probability would shift based on team roster changes, injury reports, or public odds from major sportsbooks closer to match day. The match result will provide full resolution, with the exact date determining when this uncertainty fully clears. Traders monitoring MLS standings, recent form, and Vegas spreads would have primary signals for directional moves before kickoff.
- ›San Jose's MLS season win-loss record and current playoff position relative to St. Louis City SC
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between the two teams and any relevant tactical or personnel matchups
- ›Injury status and lineup availability for key players on both sides ahead of the scheduled match
- ›Las Vegas sportsbook moneyline odds and implied win probability for San Jose, as external reference point
- ›Distance and travel factors, if applicable, plus home/away performance splits for both teams this season
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (11% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.