St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$610
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
197 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 18% of their title tokens — “Will San Jose win the MLS” vs “Will St. Louis be the 2026 NL Central Division Winner: St. Louis”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will San Jose win the MLS
Cluster 2
Will St. Louis be the 2026 NL Central Division Winner: St. Louis
Will St. Louis be the 2026 NL Central Division Winner: St. Louis
KXMLBNLCENT-26-STL
Analysis
This 7% probability reflects the likelihood of a specific outcome between St. Louis City SC and San Jose Earthquakes in an MLS-related context. The low probability suggests market participants view this scenario as unlikely given current circumstances. The primary drivers appear to be team performance metrics and league standings rather than individual player transfers, as evidenced by the contract mix emphasizing divisional and conference outcomes. The cross-venue gap of 3 percentage points indicates some disagreement between Kalshi and Polymarket participants about baseline probability. The most relevant upcoming resolution events would be the remainder of the 2026 MLS regular season and playoff structure, which determine competitive positioning and advancement. Notably, several contracts show minimal trading volume, suggesting lower conviction or liquidity around this particular market.
- ›San Jose's current MLS Cup odds (4¢) directly price their championship pathway; significant improvements in their regular season record would increase related contract values
- ›St. Louis City's divisional winner contract (3¢) underprices them relative to 7% aggregate, suggesting either weak recent performance or market skepticism about their 2026 competitiveness
- ›Low trading volume on the Cristiano Ronaldo contract ($0) indicates minimal market confidence in the transfer scenario, despite the 10¢ Polymarket price representing the highest individual contract probability
- ›The 3-percentage-point gap between venues may reflect different participant bases or information sets; Polymarket's higher assessment warrants monitoring for new data or statements affecting either team
- ›Most contracts lack 24-hour volume, suggesting limited recent information flow and the market may move substantially on roster changes, injury updates, or official league announcements
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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