Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida before Aug 1, 2026
Leader sits at 44% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before 2027
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Before Oct 1, 2026
Spread
41pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
187 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida
Analysis
This 38% probability reflects market belief that SpaceX's Starship will complete a launch from Florida within the next 14 months. The market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty despite SpaceX's track record and Florida facility readiness. Launch timing depends on regulatory approvals, technical readiness following recent test flights, and maintenance schedules. The next scheduled Starship test flight will provide direct evidence of progress and could shift probabilities materially. Near-term factors include FAA licensing decisions and whether SpaceX maintains its operational cadence through summer 2026.
- ›SpaceX's most recent Starship test flight results and any damage assessment affecting launch readiness
- ›FAA approval status and any new environmental or safety conditions imposed on Florida launches
- ›Technical modifications required after previous test flights and publicly announced timelines for completion
- ›Competition and congestion at Florida launch facilities affecting scheduling
- ›Regulatory or weather delays historically seen in Starship's launch history
What moved the line
- Jun 22Before 2027↓5pp45→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Before 2027↑4pp41→45¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Before 2027↓3pp44→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Before 2027↑3pp40→43¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in ai tech
- How many SpaceX Starship launches in 2026?last 38% · 1d
- Will OpenAI go public?last 13% · 1d
- Will SpaceX IPO in 2026?last 23% · 1d
- Will SpaceX be assigned to Communication Services in the S&P-500last 95% · 8d
- Next OpenAI Modellast 83% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (44% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ai tech
Related reading
AI Race Heats Up: Claude Leads, GPT-5.6 Release Uncertain
Prediction markets show Anthropic's Claude leading the AI performance race in June 2026 (98¢), while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 release remains highly uncertain (52¢). The market for AI compute resources (NVIDIA B200) is also actively traded, indicating strong interest in the sector.
Anthropic Crushes OpenAI in Best AI Model Race — Market at 96¢
Prediction markets now give Anthropic a 96% probability of having the top-ranked AI model in June 2026, far ahead of OpenAI (2%). This reflects strong anticipation for the Mythos model release.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.