Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida before Aug 1, 2026
Leader sits at 36% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before 2027
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Before Oct 1, 2026
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$126
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
133 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida
Analysis
This 38% probability reflects market belief that SpaceX's Starship will complete a launch from Florida within the next 14 months. The market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty despite SpaceX's track record and Florida facility readiness. Launch timing depends on regulatory approvals, technical readiness following recent test flights, and maintenance schedules. The next scheduled Starship test flight will provide direct evidence of progress and could shift probabilities materially. Near-term factors include FAA licensing decisions and whether SpaceX maintains its operational cadence through summer 2026.
- ›SpaceX's most recent Starship test flight results and any damage assessment affecting launch readiness
- ›FAA approval status and any new environmental or safety conditions imposed on Florida launches
- ›Technical modifications required after previous test flights and publicly announced timelines for completion
- ›Competition and congestion at Florida launch facilities affecting scheduling
- ›Regulatory or weather delays historically seen in Starship's launch history
What moved the line
- Aug 15Before 2027↑8pp30→38¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 14Before Oct 1, 2026↑6pp3→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Before 2027↓3pp38→35¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Before 2027↓3pp36→33¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Before Oct 1, 2026↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (36% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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