Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law on Dec 10, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that 3 mg THC beverages will be classified as hemp under federal law by December 10, 2026. Current probability across contracts ranges from 33–42%, with earlier resolution dates trading lower than later ones, suggesting uncertainty about timing. The outcome depends on how federal regulators interpret existing hemp definitions, particularly the 2018 Farm Bill's 0.3% THC threshold by dry weight, and whether beverages by volume could meet that standard. Key upcoming regulatory actions—including potential guidance from the DEA or FDA, congressional activity, or state-federal coordination on hemp standards—could substantially shift expectations. The November 2026 contracts trade at 36%, indicating traders view a resolution within months as less likely than one pushed into 2027.

• ›The 2018 Farm Bill's 0.3% THC dry-weight standard does not explicitly address liquid products, leaving regulatory interpretation open
• ›Earlier resolution dates (November 2026) trade 6–9 cents lower than later dates (November 2027), reflecting market skepticism about near-term federal clarification
• ›No major FDA or DEA guidance specifically addressing THC beverage classification has been published or scheduled publicly as of August 2026
• ›Trading volume concentrates on the November 2026 contract ($639 24h), suggesting the most active expectation is an answer within 3 months
• ›The 42% probability for the latest date indicates markets assign meaningful probability to hemp-compliant THC beverages, but treat it as less likely than regulatory rejection or continued ambiguity

What moved the line

• Sep 18On Mar 13, 2027↑83pp4→87¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17On Mar 13, 2027↓78pp82→4¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19On Nov 19, 2027↓75pp80→5¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18On Nov 19, 2027↑32pp48→80¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 23On Nov 19, 2027↑17pp5→22¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds