Bill Belichick out before Jan 1, 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets are pricing a 65% probability that Bill Belichick departs his current coaching role by January 1, 2028, with higher confidence (31% probability) that an exit occurs before January 1, 2027. The probability reflects ongoing speculation about Belichick's tenure, influenced by team performance, contract terms, and reported discussions about his future. The 2026 NFL season serves as the primary catalyst—Win-loss records, playoff positioning, and any official statements from team ownership or Belichick himself will likely resolve much of this uncertainty. Near-term performance in September through December 2026 will be the key driver; sustained poor results or public conflict typically accelerates coaching departures, while playoff contention or strong team trajectory would push probabilities lower.

• ›Current 2026 NFL season results and playoff trajectory: poor performance or team dysfunction would increase exit probability; playoff contention would decrease it
• ›Expiration or renegotiation of Belichick's contract terms and whether ownership has expressed confidence or concern publicly
• ›Statements from team ownership or Belichick regarding his long-term commitment; any reported negotiations with other teams would meaningfully raise exit probability
• ›Historical coaching tenure patterns: NFL coaches at Belichick's age and experience level typically face higher turnover pressure if team performance declines
• ›Absence of recent contract extensions or public renewal discussions as of late August 2026, which would typically signal ownership commitment

What moved the line

• Sep 18Before Feb 1, 2027↓36pp81→45¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Before Feb 1, 2027↑23pp31→54¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Before Feb 1, 2027↑15pp11→26¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Before Jan 1, 2027↑14pp3→17¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Before Jan 1, 2027↓14pp17→3¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in legislation

• Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primarylast 94% · 19d
• Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026last 97% · 68d
• Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026last 97% · 103d
• Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...last 97% · 106d
• Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 120d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds