Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 29%, Polymarket at 35% — a 6pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
7 contracts
Polymarket
35%
13 contracts
Cross-venue gap
6pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
20 contracts
Top contract
6¢
$2K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 29¢ · Polymarket 35¢ · 6pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (29¢, 7 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (35¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
12 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC” vs “Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC: Ulsan HD FC
0x7f5e73…c050
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc2ca50…51b6
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x958037…d5e6
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC: Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC)
0xce0561…acdf
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x6bf7a4…f057
Cluster 2
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC
Cluster 3
Will San Jose win the MLS
Cluster 4
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets
Cluster 5
Will Robelis Despaigne win the Junior Dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne UFC fight in Round 1: Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1
Cluster 6
San Jose vs Vancouver Winner
San Jose vs Vancouver Winner?: Vancouver
KXMLSGAME-26MAY09SJVAN-VAN
Cluster 7
Will either competitor win the Junior Dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
Cluster 8
GV Club Deportivo San Jose de Oruro vs Bolivar Winner
GV Club Deportivo San Jose de Oruro vs Bolivar Winner?: Bolivar
KXBOLPDIVGAME-26MAY03CLUBOL-BOL
Cluster 9
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next?: San Jose Earthquakes
0x864908…49f9
Cluster 10
MLS Cup Winner 2026: San Jose Earthquakes
MLS Cup Winner 2026: San Jose Earthquakes
0x3b08ae…dd27
Cluster 11
Vancouver at San Jose: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
Vancouver at San Jose: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09SJVAN-4
Cluster 12
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)
0x0dd98d…b64e
What moved the line
- May 1Bolivar↑44pp5→49¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28San Jose Earthquakes↑42pp8→50¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30San Jose Earthquakes↓23pp29→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1↓21pp42→21¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28San Jose Earthquakes↑21pp8→29¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.