Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes
Leader sits at 19% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
San Jose
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
San Jose
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
199 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will San Jose win the MLS
Analysis
This 7% probability reflects market expectations that San Jose will win the MLS Cup in 2026. The low figure suggests traders view the Earthquakes as significant underdogs, despite their Western Conference championship odds trading at 16¢ on Kalshi. The gap between Kalshi (10%) and Polymarket (4%) indicates disagreement about San Jose's championship prospects. Key factors include the team's current league standing and recent form, roster composition relative to other MLS contenders, and injury status of key players. The MLS Cup playoff tournament in December will ultimately resolve this contract, with qualification and seeding determined through the regular season. Trading volume remains modest ($240-$300 in 24h), suggesting limited market conviction either direction. The presence of a Cristiano Ronaldo contract (priced at 3¢) suggests some traders are hedging on potential roster changes that could materially affect San Jose's odds.
- ›San Jose's current league position and points per game compared to traditional MLS contenders and defending champions
- ›Roster depth and player quality across defensive, midfield, and attacking positions versus the top 4-5 championship favorites
- ›Injury status and availability of starting XI players entering the latter stages of the regular season
- ›Head-to-head strength-of-schedule remaining through playoffs and historical performance in single-elimination MLS Cup formats
- ›Trading volume disparity between venues (Polymarket 4¢ vs. Kalshi 10¢) suggests model disagreements about underlying championship probability
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (19% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.