Trump drops Powell investigation by…
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 3 contracts. Kalshi at 17%, Polymarket at 43% — a 26pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
2 contracts
Polymarket
43%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
26pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$16
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 17¢ · Polymarket 43¢ · 26pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (17¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (43¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…” vs “Donald Trump and Jerome Powell meet before Jun 1, 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?: December 31
0xbb1e75…8463
Cluster 2
Donald Trump and Jerome Powell meet before Jun 1, 2026
Donald Trump and Jerome Powell meet before Jun 1, 2026?: Jerome Powell
KXTRUMPMEET-26MAY-JPOW
Cluster 3
Will Donald Trump meet in person Jerome Powell before Jan 1, 2027
Will Donald Trump meet in person Jerome Powell before Jan 1, 2027?: Jerome Powell
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NJPOW
What moved the line
- May 2December 31↓11pp48→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 6December 31↑5pp39→44¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.