Trump drops Powell investigation by…

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that Donald Trump will meet in person with Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, before January 1, 2027. The 18% probability reflects skepticism that such a meeting would occur within the next six months. Trump and Powell have had a publicly contentious relationship, particularly during Trump's first term when he frequently criticized the Fed's interest rate decisions. A meeting could signal a shift toward reconciliation or coordination on economic policy, though recent statements from both parties suggest limited appetite for direct engagement. The probability would rise if Trump publicly indicates interest in discussing Fed policy with Powell or if economic conditions create pressure for such dialogue. Conversely, continued public criticism would reinforce the low likelihood of an in-person meeting before year-end.

• ›Public statements and signals from Trump or his advisors indicating willingness to meet with Powell
• ›Economic conditions or Fed policy developments that create mutual incentive for direct discussion
• ›Historical pattern of Trump's Fed criticism and Powell's independence in maintaining institutional boundaries
• ›Any scheduled events (economic forums, government meetings) where both principals will be present
• ›Media reports or official announcements confirming either party's interest in or opposition to such a meeting

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How we compute these odds