Trump drops Powell investigation by…
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
117 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump meet in person Jerome Powell before Jan 1, 2027
Will Donald Trump meet in person Jerome Powell before Jan 1, 2027?: Jerome Powell
KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NJPOW
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that Donald Trump will meet in person with Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, before January 1, 2027. The 18% probability reflects skepticism that such a meeting would occur within the next six months. Trump and Powell have had a publicly contentious relationship, particularly during Trump's first term when he frequently criticized the Fed's interest rate decisions. A meeting could signal a shift toward reconciliation or coordination on economic policy, though recent statements from both parties suggest limited appetite for direct engagement. The probability would rise if Trump publicly indicates interest in discussing Fed policy with Powell or if economic conditions create pressure for such dialogue. Conversely, continued public criticism would reinforce the low likelihood of an in-person meeting before year-end.
- ›Public statements and signals from Trump or his advisors indicating willingness to meet with Powell
- ›Economic conditions or Fed policy developments that create mutual incentive for direct discussion
- ›Historical pattern of Trump's Fed criticism and Powell's independence in maintaining institutional boundaries
- ›Any scheduled events (economic forums, government meetings) where both principals will be present
- ›Media reports or official announcements confirming either party's interest in or opposition to such a meeting
What moved the line
- Sep 4Jerome Powell↓3pp10→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (7% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In fed rate
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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