Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...
Leader sits at 21% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
June 30
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by
Analysis
This market estimates an 18% probability that Trump will attempt to remove Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve Board before year-end 2026. Powell is a sitting Fed chair with a 14-year term running until 2026, and the president cannot unilaterally fire him without cause under existing law, though Trump has expressed public frustration with Fed decisions historically. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether Trump would pursue legislative changes, invoke legal arguments for removal, or make a formal attempt despite legal barriers. Key drivers include Trump's rhetoric toward Powell, Fed monetary policy decisions, inflation dynamics, and whether Congress would support any removal effort. The near-term contract (June 30) trades at 5%, suggesting most expected action, if any, would occur in the latter half of 2026. Actual removal would require either Fed policy shifts that satisfy Trump, legislative changes, or a legal challenge Trump believes viable.
- ›Trump's public statements about Powell and the Fed since returning to office—explicit threat or sustained pressure would increase probability
- ›Federal Reserve policy decisions and inflation trajectory—looser policy or faster inflation control could reduce Trump's removal incentive
- ›Congressional Republican support for removal legislation—whether GOP leadership introduces or backs removal bills
- ›Legal precedent and DOJ guidance on presidential removal authority over Fed governors—any formal Trump administration legal arguments claiming removal power
- ›Specific dates of major Fed policy announcements or congressional hearings where Trump or allies could escalate removal rhetoric
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (21% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In fed rate
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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