Will Donald Trump endorse Donald J. Trump Jr. in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028
Leader sits at 45% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
J.D. Vance
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Marco Rubio
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$198
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 1, 2028
572 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump endorse
Will Donald Trump endorse J.D. Vance in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028?: J.D. Vance
KXTRUMPENDORSE28-28MAR01-JVAN
Will Donald Trump endorse Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028?: Marco Rubio
KXTRUMPENDORSE28-28MAR01-MRUB
Will Donald Trump endorse no one in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028?: No one
KXTRUMPENDORSE28-28MAR01-NOONE
Will Donald Trump endorse Himself in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028?: Himself
KXTRUMPENDORSE28-28MAR01-DJT
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that Donald Trump will remain neutral through early March 2028, endorsing no candidate in the 2028 presidential election. The 54% probability reflects market uncertainty about Trump's strategic choices in the pre-primary period. Key drivers include Trump's historical tendency to remain flexible in endorsements, pressure from potential candidates seeking his backing, and the evolving Republican field. The market currently prices J.D. Vance as the next-most-likely endorsement target at 22%, suggesting fragmented expectations about Trump's preferred outcome. The main catalyst will be Trump's own statements and public positioning as the campaign accelerates—any explicit endorsement or clear commitment would immediately resolve this contract. The resolution date of March 1, 2028 captures the period leading into Super Tuesday, when primary outcomes begin crystallizing.
- ›Trump's track record of late endorsement timing and strategic flexibility in Republican primary races
- ›The relative price gap between 'no endorsement' (54¢) and the leading alternative candidate endorsement 'Vance' (22¢), indicating material disagreement about his involvement
- ›Whether Trump announces a 2028 campaign of his own before March 1, which would fundamentally alter his endorsement calculus
- ›Public statements and social media activity from Trump regarding 2028 field candidates between now and early March 2028
- ›Historical precedent: Trump endorsed late in 2016 and 2020 cycles, suggesting baseline probability of continued non-commitment through early primary season
What moved the line
- Aug 2No one↓10pp27→17¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2J.D. Vance↑6pp30→36¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Marco Rubio↑6pp23→29¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6J.D. Vance↑5pp35→40¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Himself↓5pp8→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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