Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$161
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
905 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: Jay Clayton
KXNEXTODNI-29-JC
Analysis
Aaron Lukas currently leads the field at 29% probability to become Trump's next Director of National Intelligence, though the market is fragmented across seven candidates with no overwhelming favorite. Devin Nunes trails closely at 26%, suggesting uncertainty about Trump's intelligence leadership priorities. The outcome depends on Trump's personnel philosophy—whether he prioritizes loyalists with existing relationships like Nunes and Mike Flynn, or prefers candidates with intelligence community credentials like Lukas or Elise Stefanik at 18%. Ongoing developments in intelligence policy, classified information handling debates, and Trump's stated security priorities will likely influence these probabilities. Resolution timing remains uncertain, as director appointments typically occur during transition periods or vacancies, making this an extended-duration event where trader conviction remains moderate given the wide distribution of odds across candidates.
- ›Aaron Lukas and Devin Nunes are separated by only 2 percentage points, indicating traders view them as genuinely competitive rather than one being dominant
- ›Combined probability of all seven candidates totals 100%, with no single candidate commanding majority support, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the selection process
- ›Kalshi volume is concentrated in top three candidates (Lukas, Nunes, Stefanik), suggesting lower conviction on remaining options
- ›The 11-point gap between the leader (29%) and runner-up (22%) is narrow relative to winner-take-all stakes, indicating high residual uncertainty
- ›Mike Flynn and Amaryllis Fox Kennedy combined represent only 11% probability despite their political profiles, suggesting market skepticism about their likelihood
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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