Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence
Leader sits at 34% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Aaron Lukas
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Devin Nunes
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$20K
liquid
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
972 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: Aaron Lukas
KXNEXTODNI-29-ALUK
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: Elise Stefanik
KXNEXTODNI-29-ESTE
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: Devin Nunes
KXNEXTODNI-29-DNUN
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: Michael Ellis
KXNEXTODNI-29-MELL
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: Richard Grenell
KXNEXTODNI-29-RGRE
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: John Ratcliffe
KXNEXTODNI-29-JRAT
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: Mike Flynn
KXNEXTODNI-29-MFLY
Analysis
Aaron Lukas currently leads the field at 29% probability to become Trump's next Director of National Intelligence, though the market is fragmented across seven candidates with no overwhelming favorite. Devin Nunes trails closely at 26%, suggesting uncertainty about Trump's intelligence leadership priorities. The outcome depends on Trump's personnel philosophy—whether he prioritizes loyalists with existing relationships like Nunes and Mike Flynn, or prefers candidates with intelligence community credentials like Lukas or Elise Stefanik at 18%. Ongoing developments in intelligence policy, classified information handling debates, and Trump's stated security priorities will likely influence these probabilities. Resolution timing remains uncertain, as director appointments typically occur during transition periods or vacancies, making this an extended-duration event where trader conviction remains moderate given the wide distribution of odds across candidates.
- ›Aaron Lukas and Devin Nunes are separated by only 2 percentage points, indicating traders view them as genuinely competitive rather than one being dominant
- ›Combined probability of all seven candidates totals 100%, with no single candidate commanding majority support, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the selection process
- ›Kalshi volume is concentrated in top three candidates (Lukas, Nunes, Stefanik), suggesting lower conviction on remaining options
- ›The 11-point gap between the leader (29%) and runner-up (22%) is narrow relative to winner-take-all stakes, indicating high residual uncertainty
- ›Mike Flynn and Amaryllis Fox Kennedy combined represent only 11% probability despite their political profiles, suggesting market skepticism about their likelihood
What moved the line
- May 23Michael Ellis↑11pp3→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Devin Nunes↓9pp27→18¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Elise Stefanik↓5pp19→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Devin Nunes↓3pp18→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Richard Grenell↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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