Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Oct 1, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that the sitting President will attempt to remove Lisa Cook from her position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before January 1, 2027. The 22% probability reflects moderate positioning relative to the higher uncertainty at nearer dates—the market prices only a 12% chance of action before October 1 and 3% before August 1. Market participants appear to be weighing the President's stated criticism of Federal Reserve independence against the procedural and political constraints on removing a sitting Board member. The primary factors driving this level are the President's policy disagreements with current Fed leadership and Cook's voting record, balanced against the significant legal and institutional obstacles to removal. Cook's term runs through 2028, and any removal attempt would face scrutiny. The earliest meaningful catalyst would be executive statements or formal notification of intent before the October deadline.

• ›The President has publicly criticized Federal Reserve policy and individual governors' voting records; direct statements or formal removal proposals would be primary signals of intent
• ›Federal Reserve governors serve staggered 14-year terms and can only be removed for 'cause' under statute; a legal determination of cause would be required for any removal
• ›Prior removal attempts or threats against Fed governors are rare historical precedents; the lack of established norm makes this outcome less predictable than routine appointments
• ›Market pricing shows sharp compression across time horizons (3% to 22%), suggesting uncertainty is concentrated in the Oct 2026–Jan 2027 window rather than imminent action
• ›Cook's term extends to 2028 with no scheduled event forcing a resolution before January 2027, meaning markets are pricing speculative executive action rather than calendar-driven events

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How we compute these odds