Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 10% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2028
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Before Jul 1, 2027
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
482 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before J
Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXTRYFIREWARSH-27JAN01-27JUL01
Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXTRYFIREWARSH-27JAN01-28JAN01
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that the sitting President will attempt to remove the Federal Reserve Chair before January 1, 2027—roughly 5 months away. The low 9% reading reflects both the institutional independence of the Fed and historical precedent against direct presidential attempts to fire its leadership mid-term. The probability would shift based on major economic shocks, persistent conflicts between the President and Chair over policy, or public statements signaling intent to remove the Chair. The most immediate catalyst would be any explicit announcement or formal action by the President targeting the Chair's position before year-end 2026. Contract pricing also reflects uncertainty about what "try to fire" legally entails—whether formal removal proceedings, threats, or pressure campaigns qualify.
- ›The Federal Reserve Chair has a 14-year term designed to insulate the role from political pressure; no sitting President has successfully removed a Chair mid-term in modern U.S. history
- ›Economic conditions and inflation trends between now and December 2026 could escalate policy disagreements if Fed decisions diverge sharply from Presidential preferences
- ›Public or private statements from the President explicitly targeting the Chair's tenure would be a leading indicator that markets could price in real-time
- ›Legal ambiguity about Presidential removal authority over the Fed Chair—the statute permits removal "for cause" but the definition remains untested in court
- ›Any major market dislocation, recession signal, or financial stress could increase political pressure on the Fed and the President-Chair relationship
What moved the line
- Aug 31Before Jan 1, 2028↓6pp15→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In fed rate
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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