Will Travis Scott perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
12 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2028
609 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Spice Girls perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Spice Girls perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Spice Girls
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-SPI
Cluster 2
Will Jay-Z perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Jay-Z perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Jay-Z
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-JAY
Cluster 3
Will Kanye West (Ye) perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Kanye West (Ye) perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Kanye West (Ye)
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-YE
Cluster 4
Will Taylor Swift perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Taylor Swift perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Taylor Swift
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-TAY
Cluster 5
Will Beyoncé perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Beyoncé perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Beyoncé
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-BEY
Cluster 6
Will Drake perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Drake perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Drake
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-DRA
Cluster 7
Will The Weeknd perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will The Weeknd perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: The Weeknd
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-WEE
Cluster 8
Will Coldplay perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Coldplay perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Coldplay
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-COL
Cluster 9
Will Bad Bunny perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Bad Bunny perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Bad Bunny
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-BAD
Cluster 10
Will U2 perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will U2 perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: U2
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-U2
Cluster 11
Will Travis Scott perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Travis Scott perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Travis Scott
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-TRA
Cluster 12
Will Fred again.. perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Fred again.. perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Fred again..
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-FRE
Analysis
This contract estimates a 14% probability that Travis Scott will perform at Las Vegas Sphere during 2027. The prediction reflects limited public information about Sphere booking plans for 2027 and Scott's touring schedule. The main factors affecting this estimate are: Scott's recent streaming performance and album release activity, the Sphere's track record of booking major artists, and any announcements about Sphere residencies or touring lineup throughout 2026. Resolution depends on either official confirmation from the Sphere or Travis Scott's team, or the calendar turning to 2028 without a performance occurring. Related betting activity shows higher confidence in performances by other artists at the same venue, suggesting the market views Scott's probability as relatively lower compared to alternative performers. The uncertainty will likely narrow as 2027 approaches and venue programming becomes more concrete.
- ›Travis Scott's touring schedule and album commitments in 2026-2027 will influence availability for a residency or multi-show engagement
- ›Las Vegas Sphere's official booking announcements throughout 2026-2027 will directly constrain the feasible artist roster
- ›Scott's current streaming metrics (95% probability of exceeding 154M streams in early May) signal active commercial presence but don't confirm venue-specific commitments
- ›Comparison to related bookings (Spice Girls at Sphere trading at 24%) suggests market assigns Scott lower probability despite his commercial scale
- ›No scheduled announcement date is publicly identified, so resolution depends on venue or artist disclosure rather than a discrete data release
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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