Will Travis Scott perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9
12 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2028
476 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Coldplay perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Coldplay perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Coldplay
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-COL
Cluster 2
Will Beyoncé perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Beyoncé perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Beyoncé
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-BEY
Cluster 3
Will Taylor Swift perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Taylor Swift perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Taylor Swift
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-TAY
Cluster 4
Will Bad Bunny perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Bad Bunny perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Bad Bunny
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-BAD
Cluster 5
Will Drake perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Drake perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Drake
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-DRA
Cluster 6
Will Fred again.. perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Fred again.. perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Fred again..
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-FRE
Cluster 7
Will Jay-Z perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Jay-Z perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Jay-Z
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-JAY
Cluster 8
Will Spice Girls perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Spice Girls perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Spice Girls
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-SPI
Cluster 9
Will Travis Scott perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Travis Scott perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Travis Scott
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-TRA
Cluster 10
Will U2 perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will U2 perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: U2
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-U2
Cluster 11
Will The Weeknd perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will The Weeknd perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: The Weeknd
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-WEE
Cluster 12
Will Kanye West (Ye) perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027
Will Kanye West (Ye) perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027?: Kanye West (Ye)
KXVENUEPERFORMANCESPHERE-28JAN01-YE
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Travis Scott performs at Las Vegas Sphere during 2027. The 16% estimate reflects his current status relative to other major artists being considered for Sphere residencies or performances. Key drivers include Travis Scott's touring schedule, his existing relationship with Las Vegas venues, and the Sphere's programming decisions. The venue typically books artists for extended residencies rather than single performances, which affects the calculation. The main catalyst will be any official announcement from the Sphere regarding 2027 performances or residencies, as direct confirmation would resolve much of the current uncertainty. Additionally, Travis Scott's touring commitments and public statements about Las Vegas performances will provide signals to the market.
- ›The Sphere has booked Coldplay for residency performances at 28% probability, suggesting management may favor specific genres or artist profiles over others
- ›Travis Scott's implied probability (16%) is lower than Drake (18%), Beyoncé (21%), and Coldplay (28%), indicating market consensus rates these artists as more likely Sphere performers
- ›No official announcements from the Sphere or Travis Scott regarding 2027 Las Vegas performances have been made as of July 2026, leaving substantial uncertainty
- ›The Sphere typically features extended residencies rather than one-off performances, which constrains the pool of eligible artists and dates
- ›Travis Scott's touring history and recent Las Vegas event participation would be observable data points affecting market pricing
What moved the line
- Sep 17Coldplay↑3pp26→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Coldplay↓3pp29→26¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Spice Girls↓3pp27→24¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17U2↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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