Will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act

30-day trend

Analysis

This market tracks whether the Senate will hold a floor vote on the SAVE America Act by August 8, 2026. The 39% probability reflects substantial uncertainty about the bill's legislative path. The current level suggests traders assess meaningful procedural or political obstacles to a Senate vote, though the measure has not been ruled out. Key drivers include whether the bill advances through committee, whether Senate leadership prioritizes it on the floor schedule, and broader legislative bandwidth competing with other priorities. The most concrete near-term catalyst is the June 13 deadline embedded in one contract; if no vote occurs by then, traders will reassess the likelihood of action before the August cutoff, providing clarity on whether delays indicate procedural gridlock or strategic timing.

• ›The 14% probability for a vote before June 13 versus 27% before June 27 suggests market participants expect either a vote in that two-week window or significant delays pushing past late June
• ›Committee advancement status and sponsor count will directly indicate whether the bill has sufficient support to reach the Senate floor
• ›Senate leadership schedule announcements and floor calendar releases are concrete indicators of whether leadership intends to bring the measure to a vote
• ›Competing legislative priorities and votes scheduled for May-August 2026 will constrain available floor time
• ›The contract's August 8 resolution date provides a roughly three-month window from today, limiting the timeframe for action

What moved the line

• Jun 25Before Oct 1, 2026↑10pp20→30¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Before Nov 3, 2026↓4pp28→24¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 25Before Nov 3, 2026↑4pp24→28¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Before Oct 1, 2026↓4pp24→20¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Before Aug 8, 2026↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in election 2026

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds