Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 265,000 jobs

30-day trend

Analysis

This contracts estimates the likelihood that Washington state's Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sector will employ more than 265,000 people in seasonally adjusted terms by December 2026. The current 37% probability reflects moderate skepticism about reaching this threshold within the next four months. Employment growth in this sector depends on tech hiring trends, which have been volatile following the 2022-2023 downturn, and regional economic conditions in Washington's major metros (Seattle, Puget Sound). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases monthly state employment data, with the December 2026 figure scheduled for January 2027 release, providing the definitive resolution. Market pricing suggests traders see it more likely the sector stays below 265,000 jobs than exceeds it, though the graduated contract structure indicates meaningful probability mass at higher thresholds.

• ›Current Washington PST employment level as of mid-2026 and recent month-over-month hiring trends in the sector
• ›National tech sector hiring momentum and any major layoffs or expansion announcements at Seattle-area firms (Amazon, Microsoft, etc.)
• ›Broader U.S. economic conditions and Federal Reserve policy stance between now and December 2026
• ›Seasonal patterns in PST hiring and whether December 2026 aligns with typical year-end employment changes
• ›BLS release of November 2026 preliminary data in December, which typically precedes final December figures released in January 2027

What moved the line

• Aug 20Above 245,000 jobs↓37pp87→50¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 250,000 jobs↓35pp82→47¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 270,000 jobs↓21pp28→7¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 255,000 jobs↓10pp67→57¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 260,000 jobs↓7pp48→41¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds