Will the 1st half score be Draw 1-1
Leader sits at 35% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Draw 1H 0-0
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Draw 1H 0-0
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$8K
modest
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
15 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 1st half score
Will the 1st half score be France wins 2-1?: France wins 1H 2-1
KXWC1HSCORE-26JUN26NORFRA-NOR1FRA2
Will the 1st half score be Spain wins 2-1?: Spain wins 1H 2-1
KXWC1HSCORE-26JUN26URUESP-URU1ESP2
Will the 1st half score be Draw 0-0?: Draw 1H 0-0
KXWC1HSCORE-26JUN26EGYIRI-EGY0IRI0
Will the 1st half score be Spain wins 3-0?: Spain wins 1H 3-0
KXWC1HSCORE-26JUN26URUESP-URU0ESP3
Will the 1st half score be Draw 1-1?: Draw 1H 1-1
KXWC1HSCORE-26JUN26NORFRA-NOR1FRA1
Will the 1st half score be Spain wins 2-0?: Spain wins 1H 2-0
KXWC1HSCORE-26JUN26URUESP-URU0ESP2
Will the 1st half score be Draw 0-0?: Draw 1H 0-0
KXWC1HSCORE-26JUN26CPVKSA-CPV0KSA0
Will the 1st half score be France wins 2-0?: France wins 1H 2-0
KXWC1HSCORE-26JUN26NORFRA-NOR0FRA2
Will the 1st half score be France wins 3-0?: France wins 1H 3-0
KXWC1HSCORE-26JUN26NORFRA-NOR0FRA3
Will the 1st half score be France wins 3-1?: France wins 1H 3-1
KXWC1HSCORE-26JUN26NORFRA-NOR1FRA3
Analysis
This represents the likelihood that the first half of an upcoming match ends in a 1-1 scoreline. At 15%, this outcome ranks slightly below the leading scenario (0-0 draw at 15%) and reflects modest trader confidence in exactly one goal per team in 45 minutes. The probability depends on both teams' attacking efficiency and defensive solidity early in the match. A scoreless first half currently appears more probable, while single-goal advantages (Netherlands 1-0 at 11%, Sweden 1-0 at 5%) fragment the remaining probability mass. The match itself will resolve this contract once the first half concludes, determining whether the exact 1-1 outcome occurs or one of the 17 other possible scorelines materializes.
- ›0-0 draw is the modal outcome at 15%, suggesting defensive setup or cautious play is expected in the early stages
- ›Netherlands 1-0 at 11% is the second-most-common single-goal scenario, indicating moderate offensive threat from one team
- ›Sweden 1-0 at 5% and other outcomes fragment probability, with no alternative scoring scenario exceeding 11%
- ›Total trading volume of $75+ across top contracts indicates meaningful market interest despite relatively low absolute prices
- ›Match schedule and kickoff time will determine when this contract resolves; no data on match date provided in current market snapshot
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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