Over 0.5 1H goals scored

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates a 30% probability that at least one goal will be scored in the first half of an upcoming match. The relatively low probability suggests expectations of a defensive or low-scoring opening period. Key factors influencing this level include the teams' typical first-half scoring patterns, their current form and attacking capabilities, defensive strength, and any relevant tactical considerations. Market participants appear to distinguish between this outcome and higher-goal scenarios—note the sharp price drop from 63¢ for 0.5+ goals to just 5¢ for 2.5+ goals, indicating substantial consensus that if scoring occurs, it's more likely to be limited. The market will resolve definitively once the first half concludes and official goal tallies are recorded.

• ›Difference between 0.5+ goal price (63¢) and 1.5+ goal price (27¢) suggests traders expect either no goals or exactly one goal as most likely outcomes
• ›Contract volume concentration ($45-67 24h vol on goal-related markets) indicates active pricing but relatively modest liquidity compared to typical major match markets
• ›The teams' recent first-half goal averages and defensive records will materially affect probability—teams averaging fewer than 0.5 goals per half would justify lower prices
• ›Match context unknown from provided data (league, teams, importance, conditions) but would typically drive 30% baseline significantly higher or lower
• ›Price of 30% implies roughly 1-in-3 chance, consistent with historical data that suggests many matches feature scoreless first halves

What moved the line

• Jun 15Over 0.5 1H goals scored↑37pp38→75¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 14Over 0.5 1H goals scored↑18pp20→38¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 15Over 1.5 1H goals scored↑8pp26→34¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 15Over 1.5 1H goals scored↑7pp31→38¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 15Over 0.5 1H goals scored↑7pp58→65¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds