Bruno Guimaraes: score or assist
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$18K
20 contracts
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Kylian Mbappe: score or assist” vs “Erling Haaland: score or assist”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kylian Mbappe: score or assist
Kylian Mbappe: score or assist?: Kylian Mbappe
KXWCSOA-26JUN26NORFRA-FRAKMBAPP10
Cluster 2
Erling Haaland: score or assist
Erling Haaland: score or assist?: Erling Haaland
KXWCSOA-26JUN26NORFRA-NOREHAALA9
Cluster 3
Martin Odegaard: score or assist
Martin Odegaard: score or assist?: Martin Odegaard
KXWCSOA-26JUN26NORFRA-NORMODEGA8
Cluster 4
Lamine Yamal: score or assist
Lamine Yamal: score or assist?: Lamine Yamal
KXWCSOA-26JUN26URUESP-ESPLYAMAL10
Cluster 5
Michael Olise: score or assist
Michael Olise: score or assist?: Michael Olise
KXWCSOA-26JUN26NORFRA-FRAMOLISE17
Cluster 6
Mohamed Salah: score or assist
Mohamed Salah: score or assist?: Mohamed Salah
KXWCSOA-26JUN26EGYIRI-EGYMSALAH11
Cluster 7
Ousmane Dembele: score or assist
Ousmane Dembele: score or assist?: Ousmane Dembele
KXWCSOA-26JUN26NORFRA-FRAODEMBE10
Cluster 8
Jeremy Doku: score or assist
Jeremy Doku: score or assist?: Jeremy Doku
KXWCSOA-26JUN26NZLBEL-BELJDOKU11
Cluster 9
Ismaila Sarr: score or assist
Ismaila Sarr: score or assist?: Ismaila Sarr
KXWCSOA-26JUN26SENIRQ-SENISARR7
Cluster 10
Chris Wood: score or assist
Chris Wood: score or assist?: Chris Wood
KXWCSOA-26JUN26NZLBEL-NZLCWOOD11
Cluster 11
Antonio Nusa: score or assist
Antonio Nusa: score or assist?: Antonio Nusa
KXWCSOA-26JUN26NORFRA-NORANUSA7
Cluster 12
Omar Marmoush: score or assist
Omar Marmoush: score or assist?: Omar Marmoush
KXWCSOA-26JUN26EGYIRI-EGYOMARMO7
Cluster 13
Aymen Hussein: score or assist
Aymen Hussein: score or assist?: Aymen Hussein
KXWCSOA-26JUN26SENIRQ-IRQAHUSSE18
Cluster 14
Pedri: score or assist
Pedri: score or assist?: Pedri
KXWCSOA-26JUN26URUESP-ESPPEDR8
Cluster 15
Sadio Mane: score or assist
Sadio Mane: score or assist?: Sadio Mane
KXWCSOA-26JUN26SENIRQ-SENSMANE10
Cluster 16
Kevin De Bruyne: score or assist
Kevin De Bruyne: score or assist?: Kevin De Bruyne
KXWCSOA-26JUN26NZLBEL-BELKDEBR11
Cluster 17
Charles De Ketelaere: score or assist
Charles De Ketelaere: score or assist?: Charles De Ketelaere
KXWCSOA-26JUN26NZLBEL-BELCDEKE17
Cluster 18
Federico Valverde: score or assist
Federico Valverde: score or assist?: Federico Valverde
KXWCSOA-26JUN26URUESP-URUFVALVE8
Cluster 19
Dailon Livramento: score or assist
Dailon Livramento: score or assist?: Dailon Livramento
KXWCSOA-26JUN26CPVKSA-CPVDLIVRA14
Cluster 20
Nicolas Jackson: score or assist
Nicolas Jackson: score or assist?: Nicolas Jackson
KXWCSOA-26JUN26SENIRQ-SENNJACKS11
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Bruno Guimaraes will score or assist in an upcoming match. The 25% price is notably lower than several other players in the comparison set, particularly lower than Dan Ndoye (43%) and significantly lower than Breel Embolo (55%). Guimaraes' probability appears to reflect his current form, playing position, and recent involvement in offensive actions. Key factors include his baseline contribution rate in previous matches, whether he's playing in a favorable matchup, and team tactical setup for the specific fixture. The resolution will depend entirely on whether he records either a goal or an assist during the match itself. Market prices tend to adjust based on team news, lineup confirmations, and opponent defense strength as the match approaches.
- ›Bruno Guimaraes' recent goal and assist frequency in his last 5-10 matches
- ›His typical role and offensive involvement in his team's formation and tactical system
- ›The defensive quality and recent form of the opposing team
- ›Whether Guimaraes is confirmed to start or may be used as a substitute
- ›Historical head-to-head involvement rates when playing against this specific opponent
What moved the line
- Jun 25score or assist?: Martin Odegaard↑18pp3→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25score or assist?: Aymen Hussein↑13pp4→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25score or assist?: Erling Haaland↑10pp24→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25score or assist?: Kylian Mbappe↑9pp41→50¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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