SimpleFunctions
20 source contracts·Kalshi 20·refreshed just now·Closes Jul 10, 2026 · 15d

Bruno Guimaraes: score or assist

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 20 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

32%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

32%

20 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$18K

20 contracts

Closes

Jul 10, 2026

15 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 23% (2 days, 2 points)Aggregate: 23% on 2026-06-25
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 2d

Bracket families

20 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Kylian Mbappe: score or assist” vs “Erling Haaland: score or assist”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Kylian Mbappe: score or assist

1 contract$7K

Cluster 2

Erling Haaland: score or assist

1 contract$6K

Cluster 3

Martin Odegaard: score or assist

1 contract$1K

Cluster 4

Lamine Yamal: score or assist

1 contract$1K

Cluster 5

Michael Olise: score or assist

1 contract$891

Cluster 6

Mohamed Salah: score or assist

1 contract$778

Cluster 7

Ousmane Dembele: score or assist

1 contract$350

Cluster 8

Jeremy Doku: score or assist

1 contract$244

Cluster 9

Ismaila Sarr: score or assist

1 contract$236

Cluster 10

Chris Wood: score or assist

1 contract$235

Cluster 11

Antonio Nusa: score or assist

1 contract$127

Cluster 12

Omar Marmoush: score or assist

1 contract$100

Cluster 13

Aymen Hussein: score or assist

1 contract$85

Cluster 14

Pedri: score or assist

1 contract$70

Cluster 15

Sadio Mane: score or assist

1 contract$63

Cluster 16

Kevin De Bruyne: score or assist

1 contract$57

Cluster 17

Charles De Ketelaere: score or assist

1 contract$30

Cluster 18

Federico Valverde: score or assist

1 contract$25

Cluster 19

Dailon Livramento: score or assist

1 contract$10

Cluster 20

Nicolas Jackson: score or assist

1 contract$9

Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Bruno Guimaraes will score or assist in an upcoming match. The 25% price is notably lower than several other players in the comparison set, particularly lower than Dan Ndoye (43%) and significantly lower than Breel Embolo (55%). Guimaraes' probability appears to reflect his current form, playing position, and recent involvement in offensive actions. Key factors include his baseline contribution rate in previous matches, whether he's playing in a favorable matchup, and team tactical setup for the specific fixture. The resolution will depend entirely on whether he records either a goal or an assist during the match itself. Market prices tend to adjust based on team news, lineup confirmations, and opponent defense strength as the match approaches.

  • Bruno Guimaraes' recent goal and assist frequency in his last 5-10 matches
  • His typical role and offensive involvement in his team's formation and tactical system
  • The defensive quality and recent form of the opposing team
  • Whether Guimaraes is confirmed to start or may be used as a substitute
  • Historical head-to-head involvement rates when playing against this specific opponent

What moved the line

  • Jun 25score or assist?: Martin Odegaard18pp321¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 25score or assist?: Aymen Hussein13pp417¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 25score or assist?: Erling Haaland10pp2434¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 25score or assist?: Kylian Mbappe9pp4150¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.