Will USA score over 0.5 goals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$27K
15 contracts
Closes
Jul 12, 2026
18 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Germany score over
Cluster 2
Will USA score over
Cluster 3
Will Netherlands score over 3.5 goals
Will Netherlands score over 3.5 goals?: Netherlands over 3.5 goals
KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN25TUNNED-NED4
Cluster 4
Will Turkiye score over 0.5 goals
Will Turkiye score over 0.5 goals?: Turkiye over 0.5 goals
KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN25TURUSA-TUR1
Cluster 5
Will Haiti score over 0.5 goals
Will Haiti score over 0.5 goals?: Haiti over 0.5 goals
KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN24MARHTI-HTI1
Cluster 6
Will Norway score over 2.5 goals
Will Norway score over 2.5 goals?: Norway over 2.5 goals
KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN26NORFRA-NOR3
Cluster 7
Will France score over 1.5 goals
Will France score over 1.5 goals?: France over 1.5 goals
KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN26NORFRA-FRA2
Cluster 8
Will South Africa score over 2.5 goals
Will South Africa score over 2.5 goals?: South Africa over 2.5 goals
KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN24RSAKOR-RSA3
Cluster 9
Will Algeria score over 0.5 goals
Will Algeria score over 0.5 goals?: Algeria over 0.5 goals
KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN27DZAAUT-DZA1
Cluster 10
Will Mexico score over 1.5 goals
Will Mexico score over 1.5 goals?: Mexico over 1.5 goals
KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN24CZEMEX-MEX2
Cluster 11
Will Brazil score over 0.5 goals
Will Brazil score over 0.5 goals?: Brazil over 0.5 goals
KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN24SCOBRA-BRA1
Cluster 12
Will Senegal score over 2.5 goals
Will Senegal score over 2.5 goals?: Senegal over 2.5 goals
KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN26SENIRQ-SEN3
Cluster 13
Will Argentina score over 2.5 goals
Will Argentina score over 2.5 goals?: Argentina over 2.5 goals
KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN27JORARG-ARG3
Analysis
This contract reflects a 47% probability that the USA will score at least one goal in an upcoming match. The current odds suggest roughly even chances, indicating uncertainty about offensive performance. Key factors influencing this probability include the USA's recent scoring form, the opponent's defensive capabilities, and squad composition for the match. The contract will resolve once the match concludes and final goal totals are confirmed. Market participants are pricing in moderate offensive output, with the probability sitting below 50%, suggesting either defensive challenges ahead or a difficult opponent. The resolution depends entirely on the actual match result, which represents the primary catalyst for settling this contract.
- ›USA's historical scoring rate in recent competitive matches compared to the opponent's defensive record
- ›Team sheet availability and whether key offensive players are fit and selected for the match
- ›Opponent identity and defensive strength, as some teams concede fewer chances than others
- ›Match context such as home/away status, tournament stage, and tactical approach both teams are likely to employ
- ›Recent form trends showing whether USA has been creating and converting scoring opportunities consistently
What moved the line
- Jun 16France over 1.5 goals↑19pp29→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Senegal over 2.5 goals↑19pp13→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Argentina over 2.5 goals↑15pp28→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Netherlands over 3.5 goals↑8pp20→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Mexico over 1.5 goals↑7pp38→45¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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