What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?
Leader sits at 83% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 73%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ 46
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
73¢
↑ 50
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
242 days
Venue
Polymarket
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 20
0xa4cab1…23e9
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 16
0x8555a0…b7bf
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 50
0xfd2bdf…e00e
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 100
0xeae133…4467
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 54
0x08aa31…301b
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 70
0xcd9228…df8e
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 66
0xda041e…7e27
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 8
0x587313…6b02
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 62
0xc53e5d…ef22
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 80
0xc2b327…d9c4
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 58
0x8f1a32…0660
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 46
0x2ccd47…3845
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 12
0x8f9956…cc8a
Analysis
This 83% probability reflects trader expectations that Hyperliquid will trade below $8 at some point during 2026. The high probability suggests most traders believe either the token will not reach or sustain higher price levels, or that bearish pressure will dominate through the year. Key drivers include Hyperliquid's current market valuation relative to $8, trading volume and adoption metrics on the platform, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions. The outcome will be determined by actual trading prices recorded on major exchanges throughout 2026, with volatility spikes—particularly around exchange listings, product announcements, or major crypto market moves—potentially the most significant near-term catalyst for repricing these contracts.
- ›Current Hyperliquid spot price relative to $8 threshold and recent trading range volatility
- ›Trading volume and active user growth on Hyperliquid platform versus competitor DEXs
- ›Correlation with Bitcoin and broader crypto market cycles, especially if BTC sustains above $40,000
- ›Liquidity depth and bid-ask spreads on major exchanges listing HLP, affecting price discovery
- ›Scheduled protocol upgrades, regulatory announcements, or major institutional adoption events in 2026
What moved the line
- Apr 28↓ 16↑19pp19→38¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30↓ 12↓19pp27→8¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↓ 12↑18pp9→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 2↑ 54↑17pp45→62¢ · Polymarket
- May 2↑ 66↓14pp45→31¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.