SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Jun 19, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all answer·10 source contracts·Polymarket 10·closed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 196d

What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?

Bracket↓ 8

Leader sits at 73% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 71%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

73%

↓ 50

runner-up 71¢leader 73¢

Outcomes

10

winner-take-all

Runner-up

71¢

↑ 80

Spread

2pp

contested

24h volume

$13K

liquid

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

196 days

Venue

Polymarket

10 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday↓ 50: 76% (30 days, 10 points)↓ 50: 76% on 2026-06-17↑ 80: 71% (30 days, 30 points)↑ 80: 71% on 2026-06-18↑ 90: 66% (30 days, 10 points)↑ 90: 66% on 2026-06-18
↓ 5076¢↑ 8071¢↑ 9066¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 30d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This 83% probability reflects trader expectations that Hyperliquid will trade below $8 at some point during 2026. The high probability suggests most traders believe either the token will not reach or sustain higher price levels, or that bearish pressure will dominate through the year. Key drivers include Hyperliquid's current market valuation relative to $8, trading volume and adoption metrics on the platform, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions. The outcome will be determined by actual trading prices recorded on major exchanges throughout 2026, with volatility spikes—particularly around exchange listings, product announcements, or major crypto market moves—potentially the most significant near-term catalyst for repricing these contracts.

  • Current Hyperliquid spot price relative to $8 threshold and recent trading range volatility
  • Trading volume and active user growth on Hyperliquid platform versus competitor DEXs
  • Correlation with Bitcoin and broader crypto market cycles, especially if BTC sustains above $40,000
  • Liquidity depth and bid-ask spreads on major exchanges listing HLP, affecting price discovery
  • Scheduled protocol upgrades, regulatory announcements, or major institutional adoption events in 2026

What moved the line

  • Jun 13↓ 4013pp7057¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 16↓ 409pp5243¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 12↓ 309pp3324¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 15↑ 808pp6977¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 14↑ 1008pp3442¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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