Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 180 bu/acre
Leader sits at 97% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 164 bu/acre
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Above 168 bu/acre
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
160 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 1
Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 176 bu/acre?: Above 176 bu/acre
KXWICORNYIELD-27JAN31-T176
Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 180 bu/acre?: Above 180 bu/acre
KXWICORNYIELD-27JAN31-T180
Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 184 bu/acre?: Above 184 bu/acre
KXWICORNYIELD-27JAN31-T184
Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 188 bu/acre?: Above 188 bu/acre
KXWICORNYIELD-27JAN31-T188
Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 196 bu/acre?: Above 196 bu/acre
KXWICORNYIELD-27JAN31-T196
Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 192 bu/acre?: Above 192 bu/acre
KXWICORNYIELD-27JAN31-T192
Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 172 bu/acre?: Above 172 bu/acre
KXWICORNYIELD-27JAN31-T172
Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 168 bu/acre?: Above 168 bu/acre
KXWICORNYIELD-27JAN31-T168
Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 164 bu/acre?: Above 164 bu/acre
KXWICORNYIELD-27JAN31-T164
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 42% chance that Wisconsin's 2026 corn yield will exceed 180 bushels per acre. This represents a modest expectation relative to recent historical trends, reflecting uncertainty about weather conditions, pest pressure, and agronomic outcomes during the growing season. Yields typically vary based on summer rainfall, temperature patterns, soil conditions, and disease prevalence. The contract ladder shows declining probabilities for higher yield thresholds (34% for above 184 bu/acre, 21% for above 188), indicating market skepticism about exceptionally strong harvests. The outcome will be determined when the USDA releases its official Wisconsin corn yield estimate, typically in November 2026 after the harvest period concludes. Current probability levels suggest traders view 180 bu/acre as modestly above expected outcomes rather than a baseline scenario.
- ›Wisconsin's five-year average corn yield (2021-2025) was approximately 178-182 bu/acre; 180 bu/acre represents near-trend performance
- ›Midwest weather patterns from July through September 2026 will be the primary driver of yield, particularly soil moisture availability and heat stress timing during grain fill
- ›USDA's official yield estimate release in November 2026 will provide the definitive resolution; this data is published before year-end
- ›The contract pricing ladder (42% above 180, 34% above 184, 21% above 188) reflects a distribution skewed toward moderate yields rather than exceptional harvests
- ›Historical volatility in Wisconsin yields ranges from approximately 160-195 bu/acre, establishing the biological feasibility of outcomes across the contract strike prices
What moved the line
- Aug 22Above 184 bu/acre↑17pp40→57¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 180 bu/acre↑10pp52→62¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 180 bu/acre↑9pp43→52¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Above 188 bu/acre↓7pp27→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above 180 bu/acre↑6pp64→70¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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