Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins drop out of the Alaska Governor race before Sep 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$823
5 contracts
Top contract
3¢
$821 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins drop out of the Alaska Governor race before Sep 1, 2026
Cluster 2
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. drop out of the Alaska U.S. Senate race before Sep 1, 2026
Cluster 3
Will Dave Bronson drop out of the Alaska Governor race before Sep 1, 2026
Will Dave Bronson drop out of the Alaska Governor race before Sep 1, 2026?: Dave Bronson
KXAKDROPOUTAUG-26-DBRO
Cluster 4
Will David B. Leslie drop out of the Alaska U.S. Senate race before Sep 1, 2026
Cluster 5
Will Tom Begich drop out of the Alaska Governor race before Sep 1, 2026
Will Tom Begich drop out of the Alaska Governor race before Sep 1, 2026?: Tom Begich
KXAKDROPOUTAUG-26-TBEG
Analysis
This market estimates a 28% probability that Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins will withdraw from the 2026 Alaska Governor race by September 1st. The current probability reflects that most candidates in Alaska's 2026 races remain in their contests, with only one candidate (Matt Schultz in the House race) showing high dropout likelihood at 93%. Kreiss-Tomkins' position as a Democratic candidate in a competitive gubernatorial race, combined with the approaching September 1st deadline, creates limited time for major campaign developments. The key driver of movement would be significant changes in polling numbers, fundraising capacity, or candidate viability metrics over the next week. The September 1st date represents the final deadline for candidate withdrawals, making it the critical resolution point for this market.
- ›Eight days remain until September 1st resolution, limiting time for campaign-altering developments or public withdrawals
- ›Kreiss-Tomkins is positioned as a major Democratic candidate in the gubernatorial race, suggesting organizational infrastructure favoring continuation
- ›Dropout probability for other major Alaska candidates in 2026 races averages 8-12%, establishing a baseline expectation that candidates remain through early September
- ›Recent campaign activity, funding status, and polling position relative to other Democratic primary competitors would indicate viability signaling
- ›No comparable recent Alaska gubernatorial race provides direct precedent for Democratic candidate withdrawal patterns near early September filing deadlines
What moved the line
- Aug 24David B. Leslie↓17pp27→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Dave Bronson↓9pp19→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.↓7pp16→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins↓5pp17→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.↑5pp9→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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