Will the Connecticut Sun Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 10 games this season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$17K
17 contracts
Closes
Oct 7, 2026
151 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the Connecticut Sun Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 1
Cluster 2
Will the Indiana Fever Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 3
Cluster 3
Will the New York Liberty Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 3
Cluster 4
Will the Seattle Storm Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 1
Cluster 5
Will the Portland Fire Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 1
Cluster 6
Will the Atlanta Dream Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 30 games this season
Will the Atlanta Dream Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 30 games this season?: 30+ wins
KXWNBAWINS-26ATL-30
Cluster 7
Will the Las Vegas Aces Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 30 games this season
Will the Las Vegas Aces Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 30 games this season?: 30+ wins
KXWNBAWINS-26LV-30
Cluster 8
Will the Los Angeles Sparks Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 25 games this season
Cluster 9
Will the Toronto Tempo Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 10 games this season
Will the Toronto Tempo Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXWNBAWINS-26TOR-10
Cluster 10
Will the Golden State Valkyries Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 25 games this season
Cluster 11
Will the Minnesota Lynx Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 25 games this season
Will the Minnesota Lynx Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 25 games this season?: 25+ wins
KXWNBAWINS-26MIN-25
Cluster 12
Will the Washington Mystics Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 20 games this season
Analysis
The market implies an 87% probability that the Connecticut Sun will win at least 40 games this season. This reflects confidence in the team's performance, though the contract structure reveals meaningful uncertainty: the 30-win threshold sits at 75%, suggesting markets discount scenarios involving significant mid-season injury or trading activity. The primary drivers are roster continuity—retention of key players during the offseason—and injury status entering the stretch run. The resolution point is the regular season conclusion in September 2026, when win totals will be finalized. Current implied probabilities suggest markets view a 40-win finish as more likely than not, but assign material probability to underperformance scenarios, which would be resolved by cumulative game outcomes over the remaining months.
- ›Roster composition and injury status of core players will directly affect win rate; any significant roster changes or season-ending injuries would shift probabilities downward
- ›Market prices show a material drop from 87% (40+ wins) to 75% (30+ wins), indicating concentrated uncertainty between 30-40 wins rather than catastrophic failure
- ›The 10-win threshold trades at 50¢ versus 87¢ for 40-wins, reflecting extremely low probability of severe underperformance but non-zero tail risk
- ›Season outcomes depend on consistent performance across remaining games; early-season momentum or slumps will provide empirical data that adjusts probabilities
- ›Regular season ends in September 2026, providing definitive resolution; interim standings updates through July-August will generate the most significant probability movements
What moved the line
- May 710+ wins↑56pp2→58¢ · Kalshi
- May 710+ wins↑54pp2→56¢ · Kalshi
- May 710+ wins↑51pp2→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 715+ wins↑42pp2→44¢ · Kalshi
- May 725+ wins↑40pp2→42¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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