Carlton Blues vs Fremantle Dockers winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
47%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
16 contracts
Closes
May 22, 2026
19 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions winner” vs “West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions winner
Cluster 2
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons winner
Cluster 3
Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers winner
Cluster 4
Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos winner
Cluster 5
Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide Power winner
Cluster 6
Collingwood Magpies vs Geelong Cats winner
Cluster 7
St Kilda Saints vs Gold Coast Suns winner
Cluster 8
Essendon Bombers vs GWS Giants winner
Analysis
This 47% probability indicates that Carlton Blues are considered roughly even-odds favorites to defeat Fremantle Dockers in their upcoming match. The market assessment reflects both teams' current form, recent matchup history, and squad availability heading into the fixture. Carlton's probability could move higher if key players return from injury or if recent momentum shifts in their favor; conversely, it could decline if Fremantle demonstrates stronger preparation or if Carlton faces unexpected absences. The outcome will be definitively resolved when the match concludes. Market pricing appears influenced by limited trading volume on this specific matchup, with only $294 in 24-hour volume across related contracts, suggesting relatively thin liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads than high-volume markets.
- ›Recent head-to-head record and performance differential between Carlton and Fremantle in the current season
- ›Player availability and injury status for both teams leading up to the fixture date
- ›Home-ground advantage and venue-specific performance patterns for each team
- ›Current ladder position and win-loss momentum entering the match
- ›Trading volume and liquidity on this contract versus related AFL fixtures, which may indicate information gaps or market efficiency constraints
What moved the line
- May 3Brisbane Lions↑70pp13→83¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Fremantle Dockers↑40pp10→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Hawthorn Hawks↑37pp8→45¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Western Bulldogs↑36pp11→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Sydney Swans↑21pp7→28¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.