Will Lorenzo Musetti win the ATP Rome

30-day trend

Analysis

This 18% probability estimates Lorenzo Musetti's chances of winning the ATP Rome tournament. The market reflects his status as a solid but not elite competitor on clay, where he has shown capability but inconsistent results against top-ranked opponents. The key factors driving this level are Musetti's historical performance at Rome, his current ranking and form relative to other contenders, and the strength of the competing field. The tournament itself will serve as the ultimate data point, with results beginning in the coming weeks and culminating in a champion. Movements in this probability would reflect injury announcements, recent warm-up tournament outcomes, and any shifts in the broader ATP rankings that indicate momentum changes among the field.

• ›Musetti's historical win-loss record and seeding at Rome over the past three years relative to other Italian players and clay-court specialists
• ›Current ATP ranking and recent match results in clay-court events leading into Rome
• ›Injury status or withdrawal announcements by top-seeded players, which would increase draw accessibility for lower-seeded competitors
• ›Head-to-head records and performance data of Musetti against the top five favorites currently priced in the market
• ›The tournament draw configuration once announced, including Musetti's projected path to the final based on seeding

What moved the line

• Aug 21Carlos Alcaraz↑9pp18→27¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 22Carlos Alcaraz↑6pp27→33¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 23Alexander Zverev↑5pp14→19¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 18Carlos Alcaraz↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 22Novak Djokovic↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Will The Warehouse Project at Depot Mayfield be in the Top 5 on Dj Mag Top 100 Clubslast 50% · 3d
• How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026last 38% · 4d
• Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissionerlast 49% · 5d
• Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 21, 2026last 45% · 5d
• Will James Fishback concede defeat in the the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race before Aug 20, 2026last 79% · 6d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds