Will Lorenzo Musetti win the ATP Rome
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$41K
10 contracts
Closes
Sep 28, 2026
96 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Taylor Fritz win” vs “Will Ben Shelton win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Taylor Fritz win
Cluster 2
Will Ben Shelton win
Cluster 3
Will Jannik Sinner win the Wimbledon Men's Singles
Will Jannik Sinner win the Wimbledon Men's Singles?: Jannik Sinner
KXATP-26WIM-SIN
Cluster 4
Will Jack Draper win the Wimbledon Men's Singles
Will Jack Draper win the Wimbledon Men's Singles?: Jack Draper
KXATP-26WIM-DRA
Cluster 5
Will Alexander Zverev win the Wimbledon Men's Singles
Will Alexander Zverev win the Wimbledon Men's Singles?: Alexander Zverev
KXATP-26WIM-ZVE
Cluster 6
Will Novak Djokovic win the Wimbledon Men's Singles
Will Novak Djokovic win the Wimbledon Men's Singles?: Novak Djokovic
KXATP-26WIM-DJO
Cluster 7
Will Murphy Cassone win the ATP Mallorca
Will Murphy Cassone win the ATP Mallorca?: Murphy Cassone
KXATP-26MALLOR-CAS
Cluster 8
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open Men's Singles
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open Men's Singles?: Carlos Alcaraz
KXATP-26USO-ALC
Analysis
This 18% probability estimates Lorenzo Musetti's chances of winning the ATP Rome tournament. The market reflects his status as a solid but not elite competitor on clay, where he has shown capability but inconsistent results against top-ranked opponents. The key factors driving this level are Musetti's historical performance at Rome, his current ranking and form relative to other contenders, and the strength of the competing field. The tournament itself will serve as the ultimate data point, with results beginning in the coming weeks and culminating in a champion. Movements in this probability would reflect injury announcements, recent warm-up tournament outcomes, and any shifts in the broader ATP rankings that indicate momentum changes among the field.
- ›Musetti's historical win-loss record and seeding at Rome over the past three years relative to other Italian players and clay-court specialists
- ›Current ATP ranking and recent match results in clay-court events leading into Rome
- ›Injury status or withdrawal announcements by top-seeded players, which would increase draw accessibility for lower-seeded competitors
- ›Head-to-head records and performance data of Musetti against the top five favorites currently priced in the market
- ›The tournament draw configuration once announced, including Musetti's projected path to the final based on seeding
What moved the line
- Jun 17Carlos Alcaraz↑16pp11→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Carlos Alcaraz↑10pp20→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Carlos Alcaraz↓7pp27→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Carlos Alcaraz↑4pp28→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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