Will Die Linke finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
5 contracts
Closes
Sep 20, 2027
389 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Die Linke finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election
Will Die Linke finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election?: Die Linke
KXBERLIN4TH-26SEP20-4-DLIN
Cluster 2
Will Grüne finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election
Will Grüne finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election?: Grüne
KXBERLIN4TH-26SEP20-4-GRUN
Cluster 3
Will AfD finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election
Will AfD finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election?: AfD
KXBERLIN4TH-26SEP20-4-AFD
Cluster 4
Will SPD finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election
Will SPD finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election?: SPD
KXBERLIN4TH-26SEP20-4-SPD
Cluster 5
Will CDU finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election
Will CDU finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election?: CDU
KXBERLIN4TH-26SEP20-4-CDU
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that Die Linke finishes in fourth place in the 2026 Berlin state election. Die Linke currently faces structural challenges in Berlin politics: the party has experienced declining support in recent years and competes for left-wing voters alongside the Greens and SPD. The 5% probability suggests markets view a fourth-place finish as unlikely but plausible. Movement in this probability would primarily depend on polling trends in the months leading to the election and whether Die Linke can stabilize or regain voter support. The Berlin state election scheduled for 2026 will definitively resolve this outcome, determining the actual final rankings of all participating parties.
- ›Die Linke's current polling position relative to SPD, Greens, and other parties in recent Berlin surveys
- ›Historical vote share trends for Die Linke in Berlin elections over the past decade
- ›Voter coalition dynamics and potential redistribution between left-wing parties (SPD, Greens, Die Linke)
- ›Turnout patterns in Berlin elections and whether they favor or disadvantage Die Linke's base
- ›Comparative market probabilities for other parties finishing fourth, which currently show Greens at 9¢ as the frontrunner for that position
What moved the line
- Aug 26Grüne↑25pp16→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Grüne↑14pp2→16¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25AfD↑8pp2→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25SPD↑7pp2→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26CDU↑6pp7→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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