Will Brazil Union win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7
2 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
404 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Liberal Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election
Will Liberal Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?: Liberal Party
KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-PL
Cluster 2
Will Brazilian Democratic Movement win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Brazil Union will finish among the top vote-getters in the 2026 Brazilian Senate election. At 30%, the market implies Brazil Union is a credible but not dominant force in the race. The current level reflects Brazil Union's existing political position and recent polling, though Senate elections involve multiple parties competing for seats across state-level races. The probability could shift based on changes in party leadership, coalition agreements, or shifts in voter preferences captured by polling. The 2026 Senate election itself, scheduled for early October 2026, will definitively resolve whether Brazil Union achieves the vote share needed to be among top performers.
- ›Brazil Union's current polling average and historical performance in recent Brazilian elections relative to competitors
- ›Coalition formation dynamics and whether Brazil Union enters into strategic alliances that affect vote distribution
- ›Changes in party leadership, candidate quality, or public scandals affecting party favorability
- ›Liberal Party's dominant market position (82¢) suggests consolidated expectation that a major party outperforms Brazil Union
- ›Actual election results in early October 2026 will provide definitive measurement of Brazil Union's vote share and seat allocation
What moved the line
- Aug 20Liberal Party↓4pp76→72¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Brazilian Democratic Movement↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (42% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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