Will Los Angeles Mayor be Spencer Pratt wins AND California Governor be Tom Steyer wins for Nov 2026
Leader sits at 55% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Nithya Raman and Xavier Bece
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
500 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Los Angeles Mayor
Will Los Angeles Mayor be Karen Bass wins AND California Governor be Xavier Becerra wins for Nov 2026?: Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
KXCAGOVLAMAYOR-26NOV-BAS-BEC
Will Los Angeles Mayor be Nithya Raman wins AND California Governor be Xavier Becerra wins for Nov 2026?: Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
KXCAGOVLAMAYOR-26NOV-RAM-BEC
Will Los Angeles Mayor be Karen Bass wins AND California Governor be Steve Hilton wins for Nov 2026?: Karen Bass and Steve Hilton
KXCAGOVLAMAYOR-26NOV-BAS-HIL
Analysis
This probability represents the combined chances that Spencer Pratt wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral race while Tom Steyer wins California's gubernatorial race. At 52%, this outcome currently leads the multi-outcome market, though it reflects the highest probability among five possible candidate pairings. The market is pricing in several dynamics: Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra together command identical probability (52%), suggesting uncertainty about whether voters will consolidate around incumbent leadership or seek change. Xavier Becerra appears in the two highest-probability scenarios (58¢ combined across his two pairings), indicating market confidence in his gubernatorial prospects. The resolution hinges on both races moving forward simultaneously through California's election cycle. Upcoming primary dates, candidate announcements, and polling data through fall 2026 will test whether these probabilities hold or shift as voter preferences crystallize.
- ›Xavier Becerra appears in 58¢ of total market probability across two contracts, suggesting stronger consensus around his gubernatorial viability than Steyer
- ›Karen Bass-Xavier Becerra pairing matches the Spencer Pratt-Tom Steyer price at 52¢, indicating near-equal probability for incumbent vs. alternative slates
- ›Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman combined account for only 18¢ across mayoral pairings, suggesting market skepticism about anti-incumbent momentum in Los Angeles
- ›Tom Steyer appears in only 8¢ of total probability across two contracts, indicating lower market confidence in his gubernatorial prospects versus Becerra
- ›Daily trading volume exceeds $800 on the leading contracts but drops below $300 on lower-probability outcomes, showing concentrated trader attention on two main scenarios
What moved the line
- Jun 19Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra↓8pp63→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra↑5pp25→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra↑4pp59→63¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Midterm Election Odds Shift: Democrats Favored for House, Senate Toss-Up
Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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