Will Count Binface Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
4 contracts
Closes
Aug 13, 2027
388 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Count Binface Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Cluster 2
Will Reclaim Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Cluster 3
Will Official Monster Raving Loony Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Cluster 4
Will Reform UK finish 2nd in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Will Reform UK finish 2nd in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: Reform UK
KXCLACTON2ND-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-2-REF
Analysis
This markets asks whether Count Binface Party will finish in second place in the 2026 Clacton by-election. At 12% probability, traders assess this as an unlikely but non-negligible outcome. The current estimate reflects uncertainty around several variables: the full candidate field has not yet solidified, voter preferences remain fluid ahead of formal campaigning, and Clacton's specific electoral dynamics are difficult to predict. Count Binface Party's novelty status and limited historical polling data in this constituency create wide confidence intervals. The main catalyst for resolution will be the actual by-election result once it occurs. Between now and voting day, any major polling releases, candidate withdrawals, or shifts in voter sentiment could materially alter expectations. The relatively high trading volume on the Count Binface contract (versus other fringe candidates) suggests moderate market interest despite the low baseline probability.
- ›Count Binface Party received 68¢ pricing versus 7¢ for Forward Party, the second-most-backed option, indicating the market views them as the stronger performer among non-traditional candidates
- ›By-election timing and formal candidate confirmation remain pending, leaving substantial uncertainty about final field composition and ballot prominence
- ›Historical polling and vote share data for Count Binface Party in Clacton specifically is minimal, making statistical forecasting difficult
- ›Second-place finishes typically go to mainstream opposition parties; fringe candidates reaching second would require unusually fragmented voting or organizational collapse of major contenders
- ›Trading volume of $1,659 in 24 hours on this contract is moderate relative to major political markets, suggesting professional uncertainty rather than consensus conviction
What moved the line
- Jul 19Reclaim Party↑6pp3→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Count Binface Party↓5pp71→66¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Reform UK↓4pp9→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 15Count Binface Party↑3pp66→69¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Count Binface Party↑3pp69→72¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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