Will Luke Worley finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
6 contracts
Closes
Aug 13, 2027
363 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Reclaim Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Cluster 2
Will Social Democratic Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Cluster 3
Will Official Monster Raving Loony Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Cluster 4
Will British Democratic Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Cluster 5
Will Count Binface Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Cluster 6
Will Ollie Granger finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated chance that Luke Worley finishes in third place in the 2026 Clacton by-election. At 10%, Worley trails other potential third-place finishers including Forward Party (19¢) and Count Binface Party (22¢), suggesting analysts view him as less likely than these alternatives to achieve the third position. The likelihood depends on how Clacton's electorate splits across candidates beyond the frontrunners, and whether Worley's specific appeal in this constituency translates to a strong third-place showing. The by-election itself will provide definitive resolution when votes are counted, making candidate momentum, local campaign effectiveness, and the broader fragmentation of the non-frontrunner vote the primary drivers of movement in this probability. Historical by-election results in similar constituencies can inform expectations about how concentrated or dispersed third-place finishes typically are.
- ›Forward Party and Count Binface Party are currently priced higher for third place, indicating market assessment that Worley faces competitive pressure from multiple alternative candidates
- ›Kalshi volume for the Worley contract ($218 in 24h) is moderate compared to Forward Party ($271), suggesting some trader interest but less conviction than in other outcomes
- ›The 10% probability implies roughly 1-in-10 odds, requiring Worley to substantially outperform multiple other candidates positioned as more likely third-place finishers
- ›By-election timing and candidate field composition remain critical unknown factors that would directly affect fragmentation and Worley's relative positioning
- ›Historical Clacton voting patterns and demographic alignment with Worley's political positioning would shape realistic performance expectations
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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