Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
Leader sits at 96% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.400?: Above 334.400
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
U.S. city average, All items
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$33K
liquid
Closes
Jul 14, 2026
7 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 33
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.400?: Above 334.400
KXCPINDEX-26JUL14-T334.400
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.700?: Above 334.700
KXCPINDEX-26JUL14-T334.700
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.900?: Above 334.900
KXCPINDEX-26JUL14-T334.900
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.600?: Above 334.600
KXCPINDEX-26JUL14-T334.600
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 335.000?: Above 335.000
KXCPINDEX-26JUL14-T335.000
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 335.400?: Above 335.400
KXCPINDEX-26JUL14-T335.400
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.800?: Above 334.800
KXCPINDEX-26JUL14-T334.800
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 335.300?: Above 335.300
KXCPINDEX-26JUL14-T335.300
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.500?: Above 334.500
KXCPINDEX-26JUL14-T334.500
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 335.200?: Above 335.200
KXCPINDEX-26JUL14-T335.200
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 335.100?: Above 335.100
KXCPINDEX-26JUL14-T335.100
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the Consumer Price Index for urban consumers will exceed 334.400 for June 2026 (using 1982-84 as a baseline). The high 96% probability suggests traders believe inflation remains elevated. The specific CPI level needed depends on the trajectory of price growth in the coming months—further price increases would push the outcome more likely, while disinflation would lower it. The June 2026 CPI release, typically published in early July, will definitively resolve this contract. The spread across contracts (ranging from 96% above 334.400 to 32% above 334.800) indicates uncertainty about whether inflation will settle in the mid-334s or push higher.
- ›Historical CPI data from late 2025 through early June 2026 will determine whether the index reaches or exceeds the 334.400 threshold
- ›The June 2026 CPI release date (early July 2026) provides the definitive resolution point; no estimation or projection affects the outcome
- ›Month-over-month inflation changes in the 2-3 months preceding June will be the primary drivers of whether this level is reached
- ›Energy and commodity price movements during spring 2026 could materially affect the final CPI figure
- ›The 64-percentage-point spread between the 96% contract (above 334.400) and the 32% contract (above 334.800) shows traders expect the final reading to cluster in a narrow band but are uncertain whether it lands in the lower or upper portion
What moved the line
- Jul 7U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.400?: Above 334.400↑29pp61→90¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.600?: Above 334.600↑22pp53→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.500?: Above 334.500↑13pp58→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.700?: Above 334.700↑12pp48→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 335.100?: Above 335.100↑5pp7→12¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Donald Trump make between 80 and 99 Truth Social posts the week of Apr 19, 2026last 48% · 3d
- Which city will host the 2026 RNC midterm conventionlast 96% · 4d
- Will Ruben Gallego be out as House member before July 2026last 3% · 6d
- Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administrationlast 3% · 6d
- Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.10%last 10% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.