Will DoorDash Inc. report above 1040 million total orders in Q2 2026
Leader sits at 93% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 80%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
above 940 million
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
80¢
above 960 million
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 4, 2026
99 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will DoorDash Inc. report above
Will DoorDash Inc. report above 960 million total orders in Q2 2026?: above 960 million
KXDASH-26AUGORDERS-P960000000
Will DoorDash Inc. report above 980 million total orders in Q2 2026?: above 980 million
KXDASH-26AUGORDERS-P980000000
Will DoorDash Inc. report above 940 million total orders in Q2 2026?: above 940 million
KXDASH-26AUGORDERS-P940000000
Will DoorDash Inc. report above 1020 million total orders in Q2 2026?: above 1020 million
KXDASH-26AUGORDERS-P1020000000
Will DoorDash Inc. report above 1000 million total orders in Q2 2026?: above 1000 million
KXDASH-26AUGORDERS-P1000000000
Analysis
This represents traders' assessment that DoorDash will report more than 1.04 billion orders in the second quarter of 2026. The 87% probability on the broader 940 million threshold suggests confidence in DoorDash's order volume reaching roughly baseline expectations, but the 9% price on the 1.04 billion contract indicates significant skepticism about reaching the higher end. Key drivers include DoorDash's historical quarterly growth rate, seasonal demand patterns in Q2, competitive pressures from other platforms, and macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer spending on delivery services. The resolution date depends on DoorDash's earnings release, typically occurring 4-6 weeks after quarter-end in July 2026, when the company reports official total orders for the period.
- ›DoorDash's Q1 2026 total order count and disclosed sequential growth trends
- ›Year-over-year order volume growth compared to Q2 2025 baseline
- ›Market share dynamics relative to competitors like Uber Eats and other delivery platforms
- ›Seasonal demand variations in Q2 versus full-year patterns
- ›Macro consumer spending indicators and discretionary spending patterns during the April-June period
What moved the line
- May 21above 940 million↑53pp36→89¢ · Kalshi
- May 21above 960 million↑32pp31→63¢ · Kalshi
- May 21above 980 million↑20pp21→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 24above 960 million↑10pp70→80¢ · Kalshi
- May 23above 1000 million↓9pp20→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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