Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 170000 as reported for December 2026
Leader sits at 74% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 70%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 140,000
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
70¢
Above 130,000
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 7, 2027
139 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 1
Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 130000 as reported for December 2026?: Above 130,000
KXDSAMEMBERSHIP-26DEC31-A130000
Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 170000 as reported for December 2026?: Above 170,000
KXDSAMEMBERSHIP-26DEC31-A170000
Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 160000 as reported for December 2026?: Above 160,000
KXDSAMEMBERSHIP-26DEC31-A160000
Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 150000 as reported for December 2026?: Above 150,000
KXDSAMEMBERSHIP-26DEC31-A150000
Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 140000 as reported for December 2026?: Above 140,000
KXDSAMEMBERSHIP-26DEC31-A140000
Analysis
This probability represents market expectations that the Democratic Socialists of America will report between 130,000 and 170,000 members in good standing by December 2026. The organization's membership has fluctuated significantly in recent years, influenced by political cycles and activism levels. The 91% probability on the 130,000+ threshold suggests strong confidence the organization maintains its current membership base, while the declining probabilities at higher thresholds (36% for 170,000+) reflect uncertainty about sustained growth. The main drivers are retention rates during the 2026 election cycle, recruitment of new members, and overall political engagement in the socialist movement. The key catalyst is the official membership count reported in December 2026, which will definitively resolve all contracts.
- ›DSA's membership trends in presidential election years, particularly engagement and retention patterns between 2024 and 2026
- ›Recent historical membership reporting: DSA reported approximately 95,000 members in 2023 and growth trajectories since then
- ›The gap between the 130,000 floor (91% probability) and 170,000 ceiling (36% probability) reflects substantial uncertainty about growth acceleration in a non-presidential election year
- ›External political factors including Democratic party dynamics, activist mobilization, and competing socialist organizations' activities
- ›Timing and accuracy of DSA's official December 2026 membership count as reported to the organization and public
What moved the line
- Sep 17Above 150,000↓63pp64→1¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above 150,000↑63pp1→64¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above 130,000↑58pp24→82¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 130,000↓57pp81→24¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above 140,000↑53pp21→74¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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